New study forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity, and risk of price collapse

Jun 27, 2012 By James Smith

(Phys.org) -- Oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020, which could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices, according to a new study by a researcher at the Harvard Kennedy School.

The findings by Leonardo Maugeri, a former oil industry executive who is now a fellow in the Geopolitics of in the Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, are based on an original field-by-field analysis of the world’s major oil formations and exploration projects.

Contrary to some predictions that world oil production has peaked or will soon do so, Maugeri projects that output should grow from the current 93 million barrels per day to 110 million barrels per day by 2020, the biggest jump in any decade since the 1980s. What’s more, this increase represents less than 40 percent of the new oil production under development globally: more than 60 percent of the new production will likely reach the market after 2020.

Maugeri’s analysis finds that the gross additional production from current exploration and development projects in the world could produce an additional 49 million barrels per day by 2020, an increase equivalent to more than half the world’s current 93 million bpd. After adjusting that gross output increase for political and technical risk factors as well as the offsetting depletion rates of current fields, the analysis projects the net increase by 2020 to be about 17.5 bpd.

His study attributes the expected growth in oil output largely to a combination of high oil prices and new technologies such as hydraulic fracturing that are opening up vast new areas and allowing extraction of “unconventional” oil such as tight oil, oil shale, tar sands and ultra-heavy oil. These increases are projected to be greatest in the United States, Canada, Venezuela and Brazil. Maugeri also predicts a major increase in Iraq’s oil output as it regains stability, which will add new production in the Persian Gulf region -- potentially destabilizing OPEC’s ability to manage output and prices.

The combination of new production in the Western Hemisphere and the still growing production in other parts of the world could lead to a sharp drop in oil prices, Maugeri finds, which if steep enough could lead oil companies to cut back on investment and ultimately slow down oil supplies. But if remain above about $70 per barrel, sufficient investment will occur to sustain continued growth in production, possibly leading to a stable phenomenon of oil overproduction after 2015.

“Leonardo's conclusions are not only startling, but his paper provides a transparent explanation for how he reaches them - something lacking in many studies,” said Meghan O’Sullivan, the Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs at the Kennedy School and director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project. “His findings have major implications for geopolitics, suggesting important shifts in how countries interact and wield influence."

Maugeri was senior executive vice president of the Eni oil company in his native Italy, and has authored books and articles suggesting that oil will remain more plentiful than many predict. His new research tests that hypothesis with in-depth analysis of reserves and production levels of all the major oil fields across the globe. He also assesses the impact of evolving technologies that open up new fields and allow more efficient extraction in existing fields.

The most dramatic increases involve the exploitation of unconventional oils in the United States, Maugeri says. For example, the Bakken and Three Forks fields in North Dakota and Montana could become the equivalent of a Persian Gulf-producing country within the . The Bakken formation’s output has grown from a few barrels in 2006 to 530,000 a day in December 2011.

While the surge in production in the Western Hemisphere in coming years will in effect leave the region self-sufficient in , the global nature of the market makes that all but meaningless except in psychological terms, Maugeri argues. He adds that the industry will need to make major investments to keep environmentally safe to avoid threatening the new bonanza.

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IronhorseA
2.8 / 5 (8) Jun 27, 2012
" a former oil industry executive"

And we would believe a manager why? If he has a technical degree, maybe, but otherwise he's just a business wonk.

Hmm, a degree in economics is not a replacement for a degree in geology.
antialias_physorg
3.8 / 5 (9) Jun 27, 2012
His study attributes the expected growth in oil output largely to a combination of high oil prices and new technologies such as hydraulic fracturing that are opening up vast new areas and allowing extraction of "unconventional" oil such as tight oil, oil shale, tar sands and ultra-heavy oil.

I was under the impression that the above methods were only economical if the oil price remains high.
If oil production increases (and oil price drops) won't these types of manufacturing go out of business in short order?
(I.e. will we not have a stabilizing effect at the oil price that juuuust makes these methods economically feasible?)
deatopmg
3.1 / 5 (10) Jun 27, 2012
I keep reading that we are now at peak oil production and we're running out soon. (the same alarms I've been reading since the '60's but doomsters don't seem to be able to learn from their mistakes, faith rules)
TkClick
1 / 5 (6) Jun 27, 2012
The only reason for collapse of oil prices would be the cold fusion and I don't expect, it will be implemented fast. After all, more than one third of oil production is used in plastic industry.
Vendicar_Decarian
2.2 / 5 (10) Jun 27, 2012
I keep hearing Tards whining about how oil resources are not being depleted.

Peak oil was reached in 2005-2007.

"I keep reading that we are now at peak oil production and we're running out soon." - deaTard

Suck it up.
NotParker
3 / 5 (8) Jun 27, 2012
Fracking is cheap. And getting cheaper.

"A typical well drilled in North Dakota's rich Bakken and Three Forks formations will produce about 540,000 barrels of oil during its 29-year lifespan and will generate more than $20 million in net profit, according to state Department of Mineral Resources data.

Over its lifetime, an average Bakken or Three Forks well will pay more than $4.5 million in taxes and about $7.5 million in royalties to its mineral owners, agency data show."

http://www.busine...JE01.htm

Production is way up.

http://www.jamest...up/News/
Bill_Woods
3.5 / 5 (8) Jun 27, 2012
IronhorseA :
And we would believe a manager why? If he has a technical degree, maybe, but otherwise he's just a business wonk.

"Leonardo's conclusions are not only startling, but his paper provides a transparent explanation for how he reaches them". If you don't like his conclusions, why don't you find the error(s) he's made, rather than challenging his credentials?
tpb
2 / 5 (4) Jun 27, 2012
$20 million profit / 540,000 barrels = $37 profit per barrel of oil.
This is after $12 million in taxes and royalties.
At this rate there will be a lot of these wells.
Jotaf
3.3 / 5 (7) Jun 27, 2012
Yes, as an industry executive he has a vested interest in the subject matter, especially as investment in alternatives to oil grow. So his study must be read with a healthy dose of skepticism.

However, this bit really made me cringe:

Leonardo's conclusions are not only startling, but his paper provides a transparent explanation for how he reaches them - something lacking in many studies, said Meghan OSullivan


You mean, in geopolitics they actually *tolerate* so-called papers that are based on nothing but opinion?! This is outrageous.
CapitalismPrevails
2.3 / 5 (3) Jun 27, 2012
We got a long time to go before we hit peak oil. Fully legalized diesel engines and we'll have more time.

http://www.gao.go...-12-740T
CapitalismPrevails
2.3 / 5 (3) Jun 27, 2012
lonewolfmtnz
1 / 5 (1) Jun 27, 2012
"The sole basis of optimism is sheer terror [of the alternatives]" =-Oscar Wilde
DruidDrudge
2.5 / 5 (11) Jun 27, 2012
Just got back from Alberta. Go have a look for yourself and then try to tell me we are running out of oil!
El_Nose
2 / 5 (4) Jun 27, 2012
more production better fuel economy less oil fueled power plants haven't even tapped the huge oil sands in NA == huge surplus

what is there to argue with again??
MikPetter
5 / 5 (4) Jun 27, 2012
There is a difference between peak production and resource depletion. The study acknowledges a peak in convention production being offset by unconventional production contingent on high oil prices. The timeframe of 2030 is short and increased consumption through population and economic growth will surely lead to the same end as existing supplies. The premise that unconventional supplies will make oil production disconnected from the geopolitics of current sources has already seen the  push to develop these new sources regardless of the costs or impacts. These new sources however, will also peak eventually and are already underpinned but high prices
Terriva
1.7 / 5 (6) Jun 27, 2012
Theoretically the Earth is full of iron and nickel, but we cannot mine it in economically feasible way. The price of oil is rising steadily, which is wrong by itself with respect to geopolitical stability: the countries owning oil become more and more rich and powerful and they're feel strong enough to ask for their oil even more. The Americans should really find a way from this vicious circle fast and stop with their irrational ignorance of cold fusion finding.
Vendicar_Decarian
1.8 / 5 (5) Jun 27, 2012
Well, it appears that you have negative 5 years.

"We got a long time to go before we hit peak oil" - CapitalismHasFailed
rwinners
not rated yet Jun 27, 2012
EN... Canada has lots of land and very few people. They also have lots of water. Fracking and all associated methods of removing heavy oil and oil like substances are very expensive and energy intensive.
Net from this: Do not expect collapsing oil prices any time soon. Oil will continue to be available and it's price will rise over time as measured against any broad commodity index.
Down here in the lower 48, we have lots and lots of people, much less water lots more government. Expect to see heavy oil development grow much more slowly. Now, natural gas is a much better energy source.
Vendicar_Decarian
2.8 / 5 (9) Jun 27, 2012
http://www.indexm...rgy.aspx

Global oil consumption is roughly 100 million barrels per day.

The Alberta Tar sands (the second largest reserve in the world) holds around 170 billion barrels of oil.

"Go have a look for yourself and then try to tell me we are running out of oil!" - Druid

170,000 million/100 million barrels per day = 1700 days of oil production.
Vendicar_Decarian
1.8 / 5 (5) Jun 27, 2012
Thank God for Government funded Research.

"http://phys.org/n...ed.html" - CapitalismHasFailed

What does this research have to do with Capitalism?
DruidDrudge
2 / 5 (8) Jun 27, 2012
You read what you want and ignore what you choose.
I do not ask you to trust me. Go look for yourself!
You cite others when it suits you, why do you trust the opinions you choose?
All sides in this have money and agenda.
Alberta oil abundance is increasing yearly, not to mention the rest of western Canada.
If you go and see for yourself, the truth will be obvious.
You will not need to rely on someone else's opinion who has never bothered to go look for themselves either.
If this is such an important issue for you, (counting your posts now.. ) you should go look.
or are you too busy in your armchair spouting off on issues you have no personal knowledge in?
Vendicar_Decarian
2.1 / 5 (7) Jun 27, 2012
I was taught how do divide when I was 6 or 7 years old.

"You read what you want and ignore what you choose." - Druid

It is a useful skill and something you should learn how to do as well.
rwinners
1 / 5 (1) Jun 27, 2012
At DD: Big holes in the ground are truly impressive.

Unfortunately, human oil consumption requires LOTS of huge holes in the ground ... as well as zillions of tiny holes through which oil is sucked.

Better, I think, for the US to switch to natural gas for many uses, such as transportation. Then the US can sell it's refined petroleum products overseas.
Vendicar_Decarian
2.6 / 5 (7) Jun 27, 2012
"Alberta oil abundance is increasing yearly." - Druid

Yup. Oil grows in the ground, like Gophers and Oranges, Gumdrops and Rainbows.

Vendicar_Decarian
2.6 / 5 (5) Jun 27, 2012
So I take it that you intend to never learn how to perform division.

"You will not need to rely on someone else's opinion who has never bothered to go look for themselves either." - Druid

Ignorance is bliss.
DruidDrudge
3 / 5 (10) Jun 27, 2012
too lazy to look, or afraid to look. or both.
no one knows how much oil ( and natural gas) is in Alberta. they keep finding more.
we thought it was only the tar sands, but now they find oil and gas all over western Canada.
Terriva
2 / 5 (4) Jun 27, 2012
When the world is short of oil, then every attempt how to keep its prices down counts, no matter how fabricated it really is.
rwinners
3 / 5 (4) Jun 27, 2012
at DD: your words: "we thought it was only the tar sands, but now they find oil and gas all over western Canada."

Who is 'we' and who are 'they'? Can you supply a link to a source that will confirm your words? A semi-scientific source from outside the oil/gas industry?
NotParker
2.1 / 5 (7) Jun 27, 2012
http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx

Global oil consumption is roughly 100 million barrels per day.

The Alberta Tar sands (the second largest reserve in the world) holds around 170 billion barrels of oil.


1.7 to 2 trillion barrels.

"comparable in magnitude to the world's total proven reserves of conventional petroleum."

Vendicar_Decarian
2.3 / 5 (6) Jun 27, 2012
DruidTard don't need no evidence. He don't need to knows howz to dooz da devision ting.

Numbers is just writen on da pieces of paper dat everyonz can doodz.

He has da faith baby.
Vendicar_Decarian
2.7 / 5 (7) Jun 28, 2012
"comparable in magnitude to the world's total proven reserves of conventional petroleum." -ParkerTard clipping from Wikiepedia.

ParkerTard quotes from WikiePedia, but dishonestly omits the a qualifying sentence just below.

"With modern unconventional oil production technology, at least 10% of these deposits, or about 170 billion barrels (27×109 m3) were considered to be economically recoverable..."

Poor ParkerTard. Caught in yet another lie.

How may lies is that now Parker my boy? 300? 400?

You are mentally diseased. Get help.
NotParker
2.3 / 5 (6) Jun 28, 2012
"comparable in magnitude to the world's total proven reserves of conventional petroleum." -ParkerTard clipping from Wikiepedia.

ParkerTard quotes from WikiePedia, but dishonestly omits the a qualifying sentence just below.

"With modern unconventional oil production technology, at least 10% of these deposits, or about 170 billion barrels (27109 m3) were considered to be economically recoverable..."


" ... to be recoverable at current prices, using current technology"

As fracking has proven, new technology comes along.

North Dakota used to produce 100,000 bbls of oil per day before fracking. Now it is closing in on 600,000 bbls per day.
Vendicar_Decarian
2 / 5 (4) Jun 28, 2012
Fracking is decades old, although the term may be new.

"As fracking has proven, new technology comes along." - ParkerTard

Poor Parkertard. His mental disease seems to require that he lie at least once in every sentence he composes.
Vendicar_Decarian
2.6 / 5 (5) Jun 28, 2012
Global consumption 100,000,000 barrels per day.

"North Dakota used to produce 100,000 bbls of oil per day before fracking. Now it is closing in on 600,000 bbls per day." - Parkertard

NotParker
2.6 / 5 (5) Jun 28, 2012
Global consumption 100,000,000 barrels per day.


The Worldwatch Institute published its analysis of global oil consumption, saying it increased by 0.7 percent in 2011 to reach an all-time high of 88.03 million barrels per day.
RobMF
5 / 5 (1) Jun 28, 2012
Where does the 93 mbpd figure come from? The EIA is showing 89 mbpd and the IEA shows 91 mbpd. So were are the extra 2-4 mbpd coming from for this year? Fantasy land?

As for 17 mbpd before 2010, that's extremely over-optimistic. By that time, both Russia and Saudi will have serious problems maintaining current production along with a number of other major producers. Venezuala, Iraq? One prints highly questionable figures about oil supplies while the other is in an area of severe economic and political unrest. Relying on these two for increased oil production is very, very risky. Fracking will probably bring on some additional supplies, but it will have to reach 3.5 million barrels per day worldwide each year just to meet the depletion rate. So you believe that fracking and tar sands can increase world oil production in aggregate by 45 million barrels per day by 2020?

Not likely. They'll be lucky to make any increases worldwide by that time.
Vendicar_Decarian
2.6 / 5 (5) Jun 28, 2012
And 10 years ago consumption was 77.5 million barrels per day.

That is a 14 percent increase in the rate of consumption over 10 years, 4 of which were defined by a global recession.

http://www.theglo...-con.gif

"The Worldwatch Institute published its analysis of global oil consumption, saying it increased by 0.7 percent in 2011 to reach an all-time high of 88.03 million barrels per day." - ParerTard
NotParker
2.3 / 5 (6) Jun 28, 2012
Where does the 93 mbpd figure come from? The EIA is showing 89 mbpd and the IEA shows 91 mbpd. So were are the extra 2-4 mbpd coming from for this year? Fantasy land?

As for 17 mbpd before 2010, that's extremely over-optimistic. By that time, both Russia and Saudi will have serious problems maintaining current production along with a number of other major producers.


The Bakken has gone to 600,000 bpd in a short time. And will easily hit 1,000,000.

The Russians have found a shale play 80 times the size of the Bakken.

http://www.forbes...ale-oil/
blackwel
1 / 5 (2) Jun 28, 2012
my roomate's aunt makes $83/hr on the laptop. She has been without work for 8 months but last month her pay was $8682 just working on the laptop for a few hours. Read more on this site...NuttyRich dot com
Vendicar_Decarian
2.6 / 5 (5) Jun 28, 2012
The entire Bakken formation holds enough oil to meet world demands for 180 days.

Howhot
not rated yet Jun 28, 2012
Someone on the opposition side must have preformed a calculation and discovered the peak oil occurred last year. Why else are there all of these announcements of Oil to cheap to meter!
NotParker
2.6 / 5 (5) Jun 28, 2012
The entire Bakken formation holds enough oil to meet world demands for 180 days.



And the Russian (80 Bakkens) = 40 years.

And the Alberta Oil Sands = 60 years

And Venezuela Heavy Crude = 50 Years

And Green River = 100 years
Vendicar_Decarian
2 / 5 (4) Jun 28, 2012
Russian Oil Booms End Means Lower Tax That Risks Unrest: Energy

http://www.busine...rgy.html

Petroneft Resources confirms largest oil field discovery on Russian licence

Read more: http://articles.b...z99Kw5dv

Petroneft said that current indications were that the ultimate recoverable reserves in the field could be significantly larger than the 44 million barrel

Or a half day's supply.
Vendicar_Decarian
1.7 / 5 (6) Jun 28, 2012
"And Green River = 100 years' - Green River = Oil Shale = Virtually zero recoverability.

Venezuela Heavy Crude, 5,000 days
Alberta Oil sands 1,700 days
NotParker
2 / 5 (8) Jun 29, 2012
The entire Bakken formation holds enough oil to meet world demands for 180 days.



And the Russian (80 Bakkens) = 40 years.

And the Alberta Oil Sands = 60 years

And Venezuela Heavy Crude = 50 Years

And Green River = 100 years


And there are many more.

Then there is shale gas, which is amazingly plentiful and clean and cheap.

http://ca.reuters...20120627

"Major car makers such as Chrysler and GM are planning to roll out smaller vehicles that will run on the cleaner fuel as U.S. consumers are beginning to consider cheap natural gas as an alternative fuel to gasoline for transport.

Natural gas prices have plunged to a decade low as surging output from shale fields has flooded the market.

Natural gas, as a vehicle fuel, produces lower emissions of nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and greenhouse gases than petrol or diesel."

We have plentiful supplies of fossil fuel energy for hundreds of years.
kochevnik
3 / 5 (2) Jun 30, 2012
Fracking is cheap. And getting cheaper.
For people like you who enjoy drinking toxic waste
ForFreeMinds
1.3 / 5 (3) Jun 30, 2012
"The only reason for collapse of oil prices would be the cold fusion and I don't expect, it will be implemented fast. After all, more than one third of oil production is used in plastic industry."

Oil prices can collapse (perhaps we should say go down) due to falling demand due to lower economic activity, or by technologies that reduce the cost of extracting oil and expand its supply (like fracking).

Vendicar with his tard pronouncements show his approach is to insult others, rather than use facts or reason. The thing about peak oil is they keep changing the forecast to further in the future. http://en.wikiped...peak_oil
TheGhostofOtto1923
1 / 5 (1) Jun 30, 2012
The MOST SUBSTANTIAL effect of the AGW hype, whether AGW is real or not, has been the resultant drive to develop alternative technologies which will directly serve our colonization of space. Materials, energy production and storage tech would not have been developed otherwise and yet are ESSENTIAL for establishing colonies in orbit, on the moon, and on mars.

The hype is the main Reason we will soon be able to leave the planet permanently. This is how the very biggest THINGS GET DONE on a planet full of humans.
NotParker
1.8 / 5 (5) Jun 30, 2012
Fracking is cheap. And getting cheaper.
For people like you who enjoy drinking toxic waste


My drinking water doesn't come from 2 miles under the ground. Yours doesn't either.
Shootist
2 / 5 (4) Jun 30, 2012
"Alberta oil abundance is increasing yearly." - Druid

Yup. Oil grows in the ground, like Gophers and Oranges, Gumdrops and Rainbows.



Still no cure for the common VD
ZachAdams
not rated yet Jul 01, 2012
For younger readers, what is interesting are the future projections for an increase in US oil production. This will have a significant and positive impact on the US trade deficit, domestic gasoline prices, domestic growth, real estate prices, etc.

Here is the Harvard Kennedy School link to the full paper (75 page PDF)
http://belfercent...tion.pdf

The margin of error in the article is connected to a potential oil 'price collapse' (below $70 bbl) and less to the projections for increased production from new sources and technologies.
Archea
1 / 5 (1) Jul 01, 2012
The economical crisis is closely connected to the oil prices and corresponding panic at the stock market, so I tend rather consider this study as an example of this article. We should realize, all financial experts are motivated in presentation of their area of interest in as rose color as possible in similar way, like the scientists presenting "their" science. No physicist will tell you at public, his area of physics is ignoring the cold fusion for twenty years and it wasted billions of dollars in fairy tale dreams instead.
ZachAdams
5 / 5 (1) Jul 01, 2012
Cold fusion is total nonsense. If CF was possible someone would be making working CF devices and raking in the dough. No one is doing this because no one can. Get it? its a FRAUD.
Archea
1 / 5 (1) Jul 01, 2012
If CF was possible someone would be making working CF devices.
Andrea Rossi is already doing it, Piantelli is commercializing his finding too. You're uninformed and therefore out of reality - after all in similar way, like many people here. It's not surprising, the cold fusion is implemented so slowly: the ignorance of mainstream physics has a widespread support of nearly all laymans, who were manipulated with lies of mainstream physics proponents and propaganda.
xen_uno
5 / 5 (1) Jul 01, 2012
The cold fusion peddlers used to sell snake oil a century ago ... from covered wagons, if that tells you anything. They also believe that you can double and triple your gas mileage by using the "excess" free energy coming off the alternator by electrolytically splitting water, then sending the O & H to your engine intake.

Parker ...

Do you read much? The negative impact of fracking is all over the net if you would bother to look. Ever watch Gasland (the documentary)? Bottom line ... fracking is dirty and destructive. Ever notice that these companies won't ever divulge the chemicals they use in the fracking fluid? .. it's a trade secret. Yet this fluid has contaminated the land & water (thru leak backs, ground fissures, and the open pits) and they offer absolutely no remediation for it. The companies will fly off into the sunset just like the lil birdies do around your head, once the oil/gas is gone. Left behind is polluted land and aquifers that no amount of money can ever repair.
xen_uno
not rated yet Jul 01, 2012
But maybe that's OK with you ... since it's not in your back yard.
Vendicar_Decarian
5 / 5 (1) Jul 01, 2012
No, but the gas that pollutes the subsurface aquifer will.

"My drinking water doesn't come from 2 miles under the ground. Yours doesn't either." - ParkerTard

Poor ParkerTard. He would rather not think about the fact that gas and liquids will rise to the surface through cracks and fracks in the rock that contain them.

He is mentally diseased.
Vendicar_Decarian
not rated yet Jul 01, 2012
Peak Oil was reached somewhere between 2005 and 2007.

"The thing about peak oil is they keep changing the forecast to further in the future." - FreeTard
Vendicar_Decarian
not rated yet Jul 01, 2012
From ParkerTard's own reference...

"Harold Hamm thinks (Bakken) could yield 24 billion barrels of oil in the decades to come." - 7.9 months of global supply.

"Bazhenov according to a report last week by Sanford Bernsteins lead international oil analyst Oswald Clint covers 2.3 million square kilometers or 570 million acres, which is the size of Texas and the Gulf of Mexico combined. This is 80 times bigger than the Bakken." - 30 years of global supply but...

Only if you remove the surface rock from an area the size of Texas and the Gulf of Mexico combined.

That ain't ever gonna happen.

"The Russians have found a shale play 80 times the size of the Bakken." - ParkerTard
Grallen
not rated yet Jul 02, 2012
The unconventional oil has high processing costs(energy contained in the oil gained vs energy to turn the gunk you got out of the ground into that oil). Oil prices cannot collapse because companies producing barrels of oil from alternative sources will simply store their oil until it's profitable to sell it. I heard that it became profitable to work the tar sands in Canada around when gas hit $1 CAD/L. It's about $1.15-$1.20 now. I would bet that oil prices cannot drop more than 15% before stabilizing.. Not quite a collapse.

I still carry hope that the prices will continue to soar and drive investment to alternative energy.

I can't wait for ITER to prove a positive return on it's design and funding to pour into building even larger versions that will sell to the grid.
AtlasT
1 / 5 (1) Jul 02, 2012
ITER is waste of money by its own category. At any case, even if everything would went perfectly with it, you shouldn't expect fusion energy before 2025 from it. The building of additional prototypes will delay the industrial production of hot fusion energy by another ten years.
ZachAdams
not rated yet Jul 02, 2012
"Oil prices cannot collapse because companies producing barrels of oil from alternative sources will simply store their oil until it's profitable to sell it."

This is an bad assumption based on 'what seems right' opinions. The facts are that oil prices are affected by the (published) changes in the amount of oil in storage. Storage is not in unlimited supply and when it becomes unprofitable to pump the oil out of the ground, the drillers shut off the wells.

Oil prices (WTIC) fell from $145/bbl to $35/bbl in 2008-9. That's roughly a 75% decline which I would characterize as a 'collapse'.

More inline with the article's focus, natural gas prices fell 85%, high to low between 2008 and 2012. This decline was caused by both oversupply and the lack of infrastructure to export nat gas.
Modernmystic
1 / 5 (1) Jul 02, 2012
We have hit peak oil REFINEMENT, but are no where near peak oil PRODUCTION. The current high prices are a direct result of not being able to build more refineries. This in turn is a direct result of the EPA and its policies.

Oil production is likely to continue to increase for quite some time. However since none of it is going to get to market faster we're quite "safe" from a price reduction at the pumps.
TheGhostofOtto1923
1 / 5 (1) Jul 02, 2012
ITER is waste of money by its own category. At any case, even if everything would went perfectly with it, you shouldn't expect fusion energy before 2025 from it. The building of additional prototypes will delay the industrial production of hot fusion energy by another ten years.
Acquiring knowledge of how to store, manipulate, transport, and apply materials in bulk plasma form is essential to the future of our civilization. The promise of cheap energy is being used to fund it. Your LENR has probably been suppressed for the same Reasons. The AGW hype is being used to generate vital technologies in much the same way. Academic inertia, like greed, is a dependable Tool which can be used to facilitate suppression and support useful artifice.

This gives you a comprehensive explanation for many things. I thought you liked comprehensive explanations?
TheGhostofOtto1923
1 / 5 (1) Jul 02, 2012
That ain't ever gonna happen.

"The Russians have found a shale play 80 times the size of the Bakken." - ParkerTard
This can be recovered using nuclear fracking, or as I call it (just now), 'nut cracking'. Russians have used nukes before in gas and oil extraction. Look it up.

Husky
not rated yet Jul 02, 2012
can't we all just be happy that there is enough oil to keep the wheels lubricated until the advanced fission/fusion finally gets commercialised in 20-30 years...?
NotParker
1 / 5 (1) Jul 02, 2012
From ParkerTard's own reference...

"Harold Hamm thinks (Bakken) could yield 24 billion barrels of oil in the decades to come." - 7.9 months of global supply.

"Bazhenov according to a report last week by Sanford Bernsteins lead international oil analyst Oswald Clint covers 2.3 million square kilometers or 570 million acres, which is the size of Texas and the Gulf of Mexico combined. This is 80 times bigger than the Bakken." - 30 years of global supply but...

Only if you remove the surface rock from an area the size of Texas and the Gulf of Mexico combined.


Fracking and horizontal drilling make removing rock totally unnecessary.

Grallen
not rated yet Jul 02, 2012
ITER should be the last necessary prototype before fusion is commercially viable. All it needs to do it produce a surplus of energy in it's reaction(and have that proof reviewed) and then the ball is rolling.

Also...
Has anyone reviewed the potential price per megawatt? I believe that last I checked, hydrogen is far cheaper than nickel.

How ever the 2025 timeline may very well be right due to the planning and building time needed to build fusion power plants.
Grallen
5 / 5 (2) Jul 02, 2012
I take part of what I said back. I missed this in previous reading of the ITER FAQ: "Fusion is one of the few alternatives available for large-scale energy production and ITER is a major step, necessary to the demonstration of the physics and technology on the way to fusion power plants. Achieving success in ITER will not lead immediately to the building of fusion power plants; another step, usually called DEMO (DEMOnstration fusion power plant) will be necessary. Building on the knowledge and know-how acquired within ITER and parallel research, DEMO will mark the transition to the deployment of fusion energy systems."
Vendicar_Decarian
not rated yet Jul 02, 2012
The U.S. is a net exporter of gasoline.

"The current high prices are a direct result of not being able to build more refineries." - ModernMystic
Vendicar_Decarian
not rated yet Jul 02, 2012
ParkerTard maintains that he is going to be able to pump nearly 100 percent of the Kerogen which has the consistency between that of asphalt and coal, from a deep underground seam that is twice the size of Texas.

Fracking and horizontal drilling make removing rock totally unnecessary." - ParkerTard

Clearly this is proof of his deep rooted mental disease.
NotParker
not rated yet Jul 02, 2012
ParkerTard maintains that he is going to be able to pump nearly 100 percent of the Kerogen


Idiot.

Bazhenov is not kerogen.

Kerogen = "Oil Shale"

Bazhenov and Bakken are "Shale Oil".

http://www.theene.../na/7813

Vendicar_Decarian
not rated yet Jul 03, 2012
ParkerTard - "Green River 100 years"

"Green River Formation - The lithology of the lake sediments is varied and includes sandstones, mudstones, siltstones, oil shales, coal beds..."

http://en.wikiped...ormation

"Kerogen = "Oil Shale" - ParkerTard

From Parkertard's own reference.

"But as great as the Bakken is, I learned last week about another oil shale play that dwarfs it. Its called The Bazhenov."

Poor mentally diseased ParkerTard. Death will be his only release from his torment.

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