Today's severe drought, tomorrow's normal

Dec 06, 2011 By Linda Vu
This image represents the multi-model projection of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) averaged over the period of 2089-2098. A PDSI less than -2 indicates “moderate drought”. PDSI less than -3 indicates “severe drought.

(PhysOrg.com) -- While the worst drought since the Dust Bowl of the 1930s grips Oklahoma and Texas, scientists are warning that what we consider severe drought conditions in North America today may be normal for the continent by the mid-21st century, due to a warming planet.

A team of scientists from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and the (NOAA) came to this conclusion after analyzing 19 different state-of-the-art climate models. Looking at the balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration—the movement of water from soil to air—they found that no matter how rainfall patterns change over the next 100 years, a warming planet leads to .  Their results were published in the December 2011 issue of the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Hydrometerology.

“Drought is a relative condition and in general is characterized by a lack of available water. There are many indices for evaluating drought because different people require information about water availability in different ways,” says Michael Wehner, a climate scientist in the Berkeley Lab’s Computational Research Division and lead author of the paper. “Our results focus on a drought measure that is relevant to soil moisture and is of concern to agricultural and forestry interests. The models project widespread future drought conditions in the United States as the global climate warms over the course of this century.”

To determine today’s normal , Wehner and his teammates looked at the average balance between rainfall and evapotranspiration for based on observational data collected by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center for the period between 1950 and 1999.

The team then used global to project the balance between rainfall and evapotranspiration over the course of this century. These models showed that the normal state for much of the continental United States and Mexico in the mid- to late-21st century would be conditions considered severe to extreme drought by today’s standards. Likewise, even though most of the simulations project precipitation increases in Canada, they show that mild and moderate droughts would also be a normal occurrence.

“Regardless of how changes, the models indicate that increased evapotranspiration due to warming will lead to decreases in soil moisture,” says Wehner.

“What readers should take away from this study is that a 2.5 degree centigrade increase in global temperature will induce a severe drying of soil in North America,” he adds. “In a business-as-usual scenario of future increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, this level of warming would likely happen in the latter part of this century.”

In addition to Wehner, other co-authors on the study include David Easterling, Jay Lawrimore, Richard Heim and Russell Vose of NOAA’s National Climactic Data Center, and Benjamin Santer of LLNL.

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plaasjaapie
1.4 / 5 (18) Dec 06, 2011
As usual, the whole jeremiad is about AGW bringing you yet another reason why you should allow yourself to be taxed into abject poverty.
Pirouette
1 / 5 (12) Dec 06, 2011
Well, if that's the case, the people should REFUSE to pay the taxes that will be for those purposes. That's why most Americans didn't want Kyoto Protocol (Treaty). We were smart enough to realize that the money-grubbers were looking for a way to line their pockets in those other countries. They mistakenly consider ALL Americans as rich. . .yeah. . .and the streets in America are paved with gold.

""Regardless of how precipitation changes, the models indicate that increased evapotranspiration due to warming will lead to decreases in soil moisture"", says Wehner.

Perhaps that's the reason for all the deserts in the world. China - Gobi; Africa - Sahara: U.S. - Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mojave deserts are but a few. And these are not recently made, so you can't blame them on man-caused global warming. . . .although some ignoramuses might.
rubberman
3.4 / 5 (5) Dec 06, 2011
I'm going to assume you are both American based on those remarks. People who know ALOT more than you and aren't in charge of your taxes just told you that your children and grand children will be living in a desert. How much do you think it will cost them per gallon of water in 2090? Seriously kids, logic dictates that we switch to renewables now and leave the oil in the ground so when temperatures actually start falling en route to glaciation, the humans alive at that time can do what we have for the 150 years and delay THAT. I'm pretty sure they would thank us for it. I doubt were going to be thanked for the condition of the world in a 100 years.
paulthebassguy
1.8 / 5 (5) Dec 06, 2011
Drought is only a result of a lack of economic feasibility.

Irrigation and desalination technology exists and it's only a matter of economics for the supporting large scale infrastructure to be built to irrigate vast quantites of land. If these catastrophic droughts do indeed become reality it will become economic for investment in this infrastructure and the problem will be solved with engineering.
Vendicar_Decarian
0.8 / 5 (40) Dec 07, 2011
The graphic shown above shows a reduction of rainfall in the worst drought conditions totaling approximately 330 trillion gallons.

The lowest cost for desalination is currently around .3 cents per gallon.

330 trillion gallons therefore represents a cost of $1 Trillion per year. Add another $1 Trillion for transportation.

The cost to American taxpayers will therefore be $5,000 per person per year, or $20,000 per U.S. family per year.

This presumes current energy costs. If energy prices double, then the cost per U.S. family to supply the water lost by drought will be around $40,000 per U.S. family per year.

Yes.. Drought is only a result of lack of economic feasibility.

How feasible is it Paul for the Average American family to afford $40,000 a year in water costs?

Innumerate fools are the worst kind of fools.

Vendicar_Decarian
0.8 / 5 (40) Dec 07, 2011
"Well, if that's the case, the people should REFUSE to pay the taxes that will be for those purposes." - Spirochete

You are absolutely right Tard boy. The drought now being faced in Texas will never spread to the U.S. grain belt because you think that your taxes are too high.

Yes, your Conservative reasoning makes perfectly good sense.

Vendicar_Decarian
0.7 / 5 (39) Dec 07, 2011

"As usual, the whole jeremiad is about AGW bringing you yet another reason why you should allow yourself to be taxed into abject poverty." - PlassTard

Science is telling you that it projects a severe and perpetual drought in America's grain belt by the end of the century. The drought will be severe enough that all crop production in 1/4 of the U.S. will be impossible, and there will be significant crop losses in the rest of the nation as well.

And in light of this projection your concern is fixated on maintaining unsustainable low taxes and not for your children's future.

Have you been smoking ConservaTard Brain Dead Weed, Boy?
Howhot
3.7 / 5 (3) Dec 07, 2011
A team of scientists from LBNL, LLNL, and NOAA are pulling these conclusions based on NINETEEN freaking models! The consequences of AGW global warming are grave. very very grave. The great American bread basket. GONE. The world population growing exponentially and hockey stick like just like CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. It is a bleak situation.

Conservatives say "Everything is fine. Go shopping."

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