Federal report: Arctic much worse since 2006

Dec 01, 2011 By SETH BORENSTEIN , AP Science Writer

(AP) -- Federal officials say the Arctic region has changed dramatically in the past five years - for the worse.

It's melting at a near record pace, and it's darkening and absorbing too much of the sun's heat.

A new report card from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gives the polar region close to failing grades. It faults both global warming and recent localized weather shifts.

A NASA satellite found that 430 billion metric tons of ice melted in Greenland from 2010 to 2011, and the melting is accelerating.

What's even more troubling to scientists is that there's been a record darkening of the normally white Arctic land and sea. White snow and ice reflects solar energy, but a melting darker Arctic in the summer absorbs that heat.

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User comments : 15

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Knute_Rondum

5 / 5 (2) Dec 01, 2011

More bad news.

Vendicar_Decarian

3.2 / 5 (12) Dec 01, 2011

Rubbish.

There is no proof that warming causes ice to melt.

Today it was warmer here than yesterday and nothing in my freezer is melting.

In the northern hemisphere, the shortest day of the year is Dec 22 and the coldest day of the year is almost 2 months later.

So it follows that with more sunlight, there is more cooling.

Everyone knows that the sun's output has been slowly declining over the last few solar cycles, and since more sunlight = more cooling, it follows that less sunlight cause warming. And that is what is causing the polar ice caps to melt.

It's the sun Stupid.

Callippo

2.6 / 5 (5) Dec 01, 2011

There is no proof that warming causes ice to melt. Today it was warmer here than yesterday and nothing in my freezer is melting.

Brain melting could serve as an evidence too.

wealthychef

3 / 5 (2) Dec 01, 2011

Rubbish.....with more sunlight, there is more cooling.

WTF?

Vendicar_Decarian

2.5 / 5 (8) Dec 01, 2011

Solar output is down. Global Temperatures continue to rise.

Hence sunshine causes cooling.

It is self evident, and it's the sun, Stupid...

thermodynamics

5 / 5 (7) Dec 01, 2011

VD: You forgot to mention the neutron core of the sun causing the solar output to go down and heat up the earth. Where is Oliver when we need him to add to the insanity. I read your post about your freezer and about fell out of my chair laughing.

Nanobanano

2.6 / 5 (5) Dec 01, 2011

Yes, the greenland ice is melting according to a very predictable cumulative exponential curve, which can be approximated roughly as "C * 1.15^n".

That is, C is any constant rate of ice loss, which you can actually plug in the net ice loss for any one year here. N is the number of years you want to go out from that, etc.

The average net loss per year in the 5 year running average (to smooth out random noise,) is roughly 15% more each year than the year previous, both for Greenland ice cap AND sea ice.

Thus the rate of net loss of ice for the sum of Greenland and sea ice in the 5 year running average doubles every 5 years and has been doing so for at least the past 10 years and probably even 15 years.

Exponential extrapolation of PIOMAS data suggest a 95% certainty that the first complete september meltdown of arctic sea ice will occur within 5 years, and a 95% certainty that the first complete June meltdown will occur by 2021.

Nanobanano

2 / 5 (4) Dec 01, 2011

The average annual change in minimum arctic Sea Ice volume for the past 5 years has been -1000km/year. In the past 30 years the linear average net loss is 400km/year.

Since there was only 4000km at september minimum, this suggests that based on the 5 year linear average, the first complete september meltdown will be in 2015. Based on the 30 year linear average, the first september meltdown would be in 2021.

Based on the worst two years for net loss, the first september meltdown could occur by 2013, although that is unlikely.

Based on the present exponential trend, which is actually even accumulating slightly higher than I had originally estimated, it is theoretically possible for Greenland ice caps to melt entirely in as little as 70 years, not counting that the southern ocean and antarctica are actually heating by a comparable amount...if not more...

http://neven1.typ...011.html

Anda

5 / 5 (1) Dec 02, 2011

Stupid sun... :)
Thank u @thermodynamics

rubberman

5 / 5 (5) Dec 02, 2011

Welcome WC, here you will learn that there is no such thing as anthropogenic global warming and that there is a perfectly natural cause for climate change. Here we expose the falsification of satelite observation, ground based temperature measurements and the political and financial motivations behind said adjustments. One guy knows more about the sun than all the scientists in the world combined! (he's also very fond of children) You have stumbled upon a Utopia of knowledge....and it's all FREE!
Be warned...when a poster here says something that seems to defy conventional logic and a myriad of observed and recorded data, it's because they have access to the REAL DATA. Sometimes they even post links allowing you to access this data, which, in order to hide the fact that it is data is presented in the form of someones opinion...as opposed to, well you know, data.

TehDog

5 / 5 (1) Dec 02, 2011

Thanks for the chuckles guys, much appreciated on a dreary friday evening :)

droid001

not rated yet Dec 02, 2011

Fat people cause warming and the polar ice caps to melt.
They generate too much energy.

Nanobanano

1 / 5 (3) Dec 02, 2011

Fat people cause warming and the polar ice caps to melt.
They generate too much energy.

Actually, Deforestation probably makes a bigger difference than any actual "pollutant" by itself.

We have a net gain of 2.2 PPM CO2 per year, but humans make about that much each year just from breathing and burning gasoline alone. The environment somehow manages to absorb all other CO2 we produce through coal and other fuels and wastes, and including forest fires. Allthough present, most of the CO2 is supposedly being absorbed by being dissolved into the oceans because there isn't enough plant life to use it all up.

when the oceans can no longer take it any more, the slope of the Keeling Curve will probably increase significantly.

MarkyMark

not rated yet Dec 03, 2011

Actually the warming is caused by te secret war between Humanity and the Mole People who are trying to warm us to death with there Repulsive Neutrino based technology. Which leads me to suspect a certain Paedo that frequents this site is one of them sho has defected to ower side hich is why e is trying to advance ower technical knoledge so we can compete with the Mole Peoples Repulsive Neutron based Technology.

bluehigh

1 / 5 (6) Dec 03, 2011

Today it was warmer here than yesterday and nothing in my freezer is melting.

- Mr Decarian

Gotta love ya Vendi. A sense of humour under duress.

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