2012: Killer solar flares are a physical impossibility
November 11, 2011 by Karen C. Fox
The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft captured this image of a solar flare as it erupted from the sun early on Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2003. This was the most powerful flare measured with modern methods. Credit: NASA/SOHO
(PhysOrg.com) -- Given a legitimate need to protect Earth from the most intense forms of space weather great bursts of electromagnetic energy and particles that can sometimes stream from the sun some people worry that a gigantic "killer solar flare" could hurl enough energy to destroy Earth. Citing the accurate fact that solar activity is currently ramping up in its standard 11-year cycle, there are those who believe that 2012 could be coincident with such a flare.
But this same solar cycle has occurred over millennia. Anyone over the age of 11 has already lived through such a solar maximum with no harm. In addition, the next solar maximum is predicted to occur in late 2013 or early 2014, not 2012.
Most importantly, however, there simply isn't enough energy in the sun to send a killer fireball 93 million miles to destroy Earth.
This is not to say that space weather can't affect our planet. The explosive heat of a solar flare can't make it all the way to our globe, but electromagnetic radiation and energetic particles certainly can. Solar flares can temporarily alter the upper atmosphere creating disruptions with signal transmission from, say, a GPS satellite to Earth causing it to be off by many yards. Another phenomenon produced by the sun could be even more disruptive. Known as a coronal mass ejection (CME), these solar explosions propel bursts of particles and electromagnetic fluctuations into Earth's atmosphere. Those fluctuations could induce electric fluctuations at ground level that could blow out transformers in power grids. The CME's particles can also collide with crucial electronics onboard a satellite and disrupt its systems.
In an increasingly technological world, where almost everyone relies on cell phones and GPS controls not just your in-car map system, but also airplane navigation and the extremely accurate clocks that govern financial transactions, space weather is a serious matter.
But it is a problem the same way hurricanes are a problem. One can protect oneself with advance information and proper precautions. During a hurricane watch, a homeowner can stay put . . . or he can seal up the house, turn off the electronics and get out of the way. Similarly, scientists at NASA and NOAA give warnings to electric companies, spacecraft operators, and airline pilots before a CME comes to Earth so that these groups can take proper precautions. Improving these predictive abilities the same way weather prediction has improved over the last few decades is one of the reasons NASA studies the sun and space weather. We can't ignore space weather, but we can take appropriate measures to protect ourselves.
And, even at their worst, the sun's flares are not physically capable of destroying Earth.
More information: For more information concerning 2012, visit
2012: Beginning of the End or Why the World Won't End? http://www.nasa.go … es/2012.html
Provided by
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
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Nov 11, 2011
Rank: 1.9 / 5 (9)
you know, eventually they will be right if they just keep saying it and time passes... but thats not the same as actually knowing... is it?
Nov 11, 2011
Rank: 3.4 / 5 (7)
This is a very odd statement and untrue. While there is no known mechanism for it do so, it's not a question of insufficient energy being available. Later he repeats the claim for flares, and perhaps that is what he meant.
Nov 11, 2011
Rank: 3.9 / 5 (7)
Nov 11, 2011
Rank: 1.4 / 5 (10)
Nov 11, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (13)
http://www.guardi...-fiction
Whereas in my opinion just the main physical mechanism presented in this movie (i.e. the neutrinos melting Earth core) is perfectly reasonable scientifically and responsible for both global warming, both fluctuations of solar activity and geovolcanic activity.
So I'm a bit skeptical, when I'm reading about "physical impossibility" of some phenomena. For example, if the Earth would appear at the center of magnetic reconnection of particularly intensive solar flare heading just toward Earth, it could make serious trouble for contemporary technology, relying on stability of power line grid.
Btw it's just another reason for implementation of cold fusion, because it would enable to decentralize the grid.
Nov 11, 2011
Rank: 1.5 / 5 (17)
Untrue, . . . but not odd in government propaganda.
After Climategate e-mails revealed deception in the AGW story promoted by Al Gore, world leaders, and the UN:
http://joannenova...imeline/
Flaws were not corrected in government and UN's reports:
www.ipcc.ch/publi...ts.shtml
1. "Super-fluidity in the solar interior: Implications for solar eruptions and climate", JFE 21, 193-198 (2002)
http://arxiv.org/.../0501441
2. "Earth's Heat Source - The Sun", E&E 20, 131-144 (2009)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/0905.0704
3. "A shared frequency set between the historical mid-latitude aurora records and the global surface temperature," J Atmos Solar-Terr Physics, in press (2011)
www.sciencedirect...11002872
Nov 11, 2011
Rank: 4.1 / 5 (9)
Article has been taken down. It seems to be a hoax.
But to make up for this I nominate omatumr as most absurd NASA scientist of all time.
Nov 11, 2011
Rank: 2.7 / 5 (14)
http://www.nasa.g...012.html
Repulsive Neutrons and The Science of Roland Emmerich films, such a nice fit, and with him being an Aryan Illuminati for making the Day after Tomorrow.
Well I'm off to grow some dinosaurs with using mosquitoes trapped in amber and make some Ice9, need a cool refreshing drink.
Nov 11, 2011
Rank: 5 / 5 (3)
http://www.intuit...physics/
Nov 11, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (1)
Nov 11, 2011
Rank: 2 / 5 (4)
The sun and the hydrogen bomb are prime examples of the fusion process.
Neither of them are cold.
For once it would be helpful if people were to pause and consider reality for a while rather than race to embrace fantasy .
Nov 12, 2011
Rank: 4 / 5 (8)
http://www.homefa...uel.html
http://mominer.ms...hildren/
Nov 12, 2011
Rank: 4.4 / 5 (7)
Nov 12, 2011
Rank: 5 / 5 (1)
In scientific circles where solar flares, magnetic storms and other unique solar events are discussed, the occurrences of September 1-2, 1859, are the star stuff of legend. Even 144 years ago, many of Earth's inhabitants realized something momentous had just occurred. Within hours, telegraph wires in both the United States and Europe spontaneously shorted out, causing numerous fires, while the Northern Lights, solar-induced phenomena more closely associated with regions near Earth's North Pole, were documented as far south as Rome, Havana and Hawaii, with similar effects at the South Pole.
http://en.wikiped..._of_1859
A similar event could fry tens of thousands of transformers killing the electrical supply for months due to manufacturing lead times.Without electricity the consequences go without saying.
Nov 12, 2011
Rank: 5 / 5 (1)
~~
Actually the lead time is about 5 years, minimum, to replace a large amount of them.
Which is why such an event is so feared.
There are components of the grid which might be down for even longer.
Nov 12, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (2)
Yup. No dancing with the stars.
Nov 12, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (4)
A potentially more dangerous event from space is a direct hit from a gamma ray burst. The probability is small, but not zero.
Nov 12, 2011
Rank: not rated yet
My guess is that with such 'space weather' forecast, a lot of suppliers will 'pull the plug' on their extended transmission lines and take the hit of a controlled outage rather than let their nigh-irreplaceable transformers burn to the ground.
A bit like a hurricane watch: Bulletins prepare people for power cuts and other utility outages. Just hope such does not coincide with severe terrestrial weather...
Nov 12, 2011
Rank: 2 / 5 (4)
What the Sun is trying to do appears like the attempt for formation of pairs of conical jets, which routinely appear during explosions of supernovas, just composed of more lightweight particles, than those which are forming during stellar explosions. Maybe in neutrino telescope the double ring of sunspots would appear like the pair of cones under low angle - the sunspots are just a place, where neutrinos are escaping from solar surface.
Nov 12, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (2)
Nov 13, 2011
Rank: 5 / 5 (4)
Nov 13, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (10)
If the SSM (standard solar model) and AGW (anthropogenic global warming) scams were based on data and observations [1-5] rather than politics [6].
References:
1. Suns motion and sunspots, Astron. J. 70, 193-200 (1965)
2. Prolonged minima and the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion, Solar Physics 110, 191-220 (1987)
3. Superfluidity in the solar interior: Implications for solar eruptions and climate, JFE 21, 193-198 (2002)
http://arxiv.org/.../0501441
4. "Earth's heat source - the Sun, E&E 20, 131-144 (2009)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/0905.0704
5. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, in press (2011)
www.sciencedirect...11002872
6. Climategate e-mails:
http://joannenova...imeline/
With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel
http://myprofile....anuelo09
Nov 13, 2011
Rank: 3 / 5 (2)
And yet we regularly get hit by the sun's ejecta. Strange.
Nov 13, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (8)
There would be no need for Congressional hearings tomorrow on the End of Climate Change Skepticism:
http://democrats....162.html
Professor Curry's blog has comments from readers:
http://judithcurr...t-137664
An early commenter notes the end of skepticism is the end of the scientific method.
The Congressional hearing will confirm that AGW is more politics than science - as many folks figured out after the Climagate emails were released.
http://joannenova...imeline/
A sad day for science,
Oliver K. Manuel
Former NASA Principal
Investigator for Apollo
http://myprofile....anuelo09
Nov 14, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (2)
Professor Curry's blog has shown that Professor Curry is grossly incompetent.
Baked Curry: The BEST Way to Hide the Incline
http://www.skepti...&p=2
Nov 15, 2011
Rank: 5 / 5 (1)
Nov 15, 2011
Rank: not rated yet
This is a completely useless factoid. Each CME tends to subtend the same angle as it explodes outward. It's not quite a hemispherical explosion (2pi steradians) but it's much larger than the angle subtended by the Earth. Thus the size of the Earth is irrelevant - when you're throwing the side of a barn at a ball, it doesn't matter how big the ball is. There's also the fact that CMEs typically originate near sunspots, which themselves are typically confined to within 30 degrees of the solar equator, and that is inclined only 7 degrees or so with respect to the ecliptic. Thus CMEs are more often directed towards Earth than if they were randomly emitted from all over the Sun's surface.