NJIT math professor calls Rangers and Brewers solid favorites for championships

Oct 11, 2011

The Major League Baseball Division Series is underway and NJIT math professor Bruce Bukiet has once again analyzed the probability of each team advancing to the World Series. "Now that the Texas Rangers have won the opening game against the Detroit Tigers, the probability of this team winning the American League Pennant has jumped from 64 to 76 percent," he said. "In the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers have upped their chances of clinching the National League pennant from 51 to 68 percent."

Performing the analysis this post-season has posed more problems for Bukiet than usual with the regular season going down to the final day to determine two of the post-season teams and then the League Division series going to the fifth game in three of those four series. This has left little time between the determination of the contenders and the start of the following series.

At the season's start, Bukiet used his to project the number of wins each team should earn (see: http://m.njit.edu/~bukiet/baseball/2011_season_predictions.htm). While Bukiet's model picked only five of the eight post-season teams last April, he said that his performance was still good enough to come in first in the competition at www.baseballphd.net and better still than most experts. Bukiet updates the of each team taking their series throughout the post-season at http://m.njit.edu/~bukiet/baseball/playoffs11.htm

On Bukiet's website, he provides the likelihood of each team taking the series in a given number of games. At this point, the most likely outcome (27.2 percent) is for the Texas Rangers to win in six games. In the National League, the most likely outcome (24.9 percent) is for the Brewers to win in six games.

This is Bukiet's 11th year using his model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games each day during the baseball season. His picks (posted on www.egrandslam.com) have led to (slightly) more positive results for 7 of the 11 years (counting 2011's worst-ever results). He has also used the model to predict how teams should perform during a baseball season and these results have compared favorably with experts, including 2011. This year, Bukiet has even expressed surprise that his daily picks performed so poorly while his overall picks did so well.

Explore further: Fear of losing money, not spending habits, affects investor risk tolerance, study finds

Provided by New Jersey Institute of Technology

not rated yet
add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

Phillies, Rangers, Yanks, Giants to win, says NJIT math guru

Oct 05, 2010

With the Major League Baseball Division Series set to begin, associate math professor Bruce Bukiet at NJIT is performing his analysis of the probability of each team advancing to the League Championship Series. "Going into ...

NJIT prof names baseball winners

Mar 09, 2010

With pitchers and catchers having recently reported to spring training, once again Bruce Bukiet, an associate professor at NJIT, has applied mathematical analysis to compute the number of games that Major ...

Recommended for you

F1000Research brings static research figures to life

17 hours ago

F1000Research today published new research from Bjorn Brembs, professor of neurogenetics at the Institute of Zoology, Universitaet Regensburg, in Germany, with a proof-of-concept figure allowing readers and reviewers to run ...

How science can beat the flawed metric that rules it

18 hours ago

In order to improve something, we need to be able to measure its quality. This is true in public policy, in commercial industries, and also in science. Like other fields, science has a growing need for quantitative ...

User comments : 0