The electric cars most likely to succeed

Sep 06, 2011 By Jim Motavalli

The crystal ball is still cloudy on electric and plug-in hybrid cars. They're still being made in limited numbers, and delivered to very specific test markets. And half the really exciting ones aren't even here yet. Still, it's time to make some predictions about what will succeed and what will fail in the marketplace.

Here are my top leading candidates, in descending order:

1. Chevy Volt: GM's $41,000 plug-in hybrid, soon to have a sister car in the more upscale Cadillac ELR (first seen on the auto show circuit as the Converj in 2009). GM has sold 3,200 so far, but the number doesn't have much to do with demand - production's been shut down as the company gears up for a capacity of 60,000 a year by 2012.

2. plug-in hybrid: With an all-electric range of nine to 13 miles, after which it's a regular , this car should find a lot of fans.

3. Nissan Leaf: Some 4,000 have been sold so far in the U.S., and East Coast customers are still waiting patiently. The price is going up for 2012 - to $38,000 for the SL trim that most customers will want.

4. Tesla Model S: Due next year, this $49,990 electric sedan is half the price of the exotic Roadster, but it has far more utility. On the same platform, Tesla will also offer a Model X crossover that should sell really well.

5. Ford C-Max Energi plug-in hybrid: There is now downside to plug-in hybrids, except maybe their price. This one is headed for the market in 2012, and with 500 miles of range it should be a really practical, fun-to-own car.

6. Ford Focus electric/Toyota RAV4 electric (tie): Take your pick. The 2012 Focus is an electric version of the redesigned Focus small car, best used as a city car with an 80-mile range. It should offer good performance - celebrities raced them on Jay Leno's show. The RAV4 is being built with Tesla, and it continues the electric career of the popular crossover (which was briefly on the market around the turn of the millennium as a competitor for the GM EV1).

7. Fisker Karma: After many delays, the Karma is finally on the market, or at least the first set of keys has been handed to Leonardo DiCaprio, with Colin Powell and Al Gore in the wings. The Karma is a $100,000 plug-in hybrid with Italian supercar good looks (though the BMW veteran designer is actually a Dane). This car has serious glamour going for it, but it has to perform up to the hype.

8. Honda Fit/Toyota iQ city electrics (tie): I love subcompacts, and they make great bases for inexpensive electric cars. These two (both headed for production in 2012) should be evenly matched, and go head to head. I'm really hoping for low prices on these two cars - under $30,000 would be nice, even if it means a smaller battery pack and less than 100 miles of range.

9. BMW i3 Megacity Vehicle: BMW was an early player in the space with its lively Mini-based electric vehicles, and its successor, a plug-in version of the 1-Series. The 2013 BMW i3 is the company's first all-electric platform, and it's headed for the road in the world's super-crowded cities (hence the name). The concept makes sense, since that's where the world's population is headed, but only if the price is kept low enough so the middle class (instead of just the super-rich) can afford it.

10. Porsche 918 Spyder plug-in hybrid: Speaking of the super-rich, this car will cost $845,000. Porsche will build just 918 of them when it debuts on Sept. 18, 2013. (They're into numerology at Porsche.) But even if they sell only a few of them, at that price the company will make money - and reap acres of publicity and the cover of every car magazine.

This list is subject to periodic updates, of course, but this is how I see it now. I predict both the and the Nissan Leaf will sell in sufficient numbers to make them, if not runaway hits, at least modest successes. They have the greatest consumer awareness, the most utility, the best pricing and are supported by solid dealer and promotional bases. The Fisker Karma and the Model S are also likely to do well, though both will need to meet high quality and performance standards to stay afloat.

I'm bullish about the electric (which will benefit from the company's strong reputation and marketing clout) and the BMW Megacity Vehicle (for the same reasons). Audi could do well with limited numbers of high-end performance-oriented electric and plug-in hybrid cars, as could Porsche. I especially like Daimler's A-Class battery car, though it may not appear in the U.S. or become a regular commercial entry. Chrysler/Fiat's 500 electric may also be a very small, image-burnishing program.

A number of other cars face a tougher time in the market. The Smart car has had a troubled run in the American marketplace, and its "electric drive" version hit the showrooms with a high lease price. A new version is coming, and with Mercedes alone in control it might be a huge improvement. Like Smart, Think (which just survived a near-death experience and now has a Russian owner) has an inherent two-seater limitation, plus a relatively high price. The new owner needs to lower the price, and maybe offer the battery pack in a separate lease offer.

Coda has many hurdles, from a high price to plain-Jane styling. Most of its original executives (including the high-flying CEO, Kevin Czinger) have left, and it's on indefinite hiatus. Wheego's ace in the hole is Mike McQuary's can-do attitude and very low overhead, so it could make it with sales of a few thousand cars a year.

China's BYD, which intends to import both a battery electric and a plug-in , has a good chance of making it in the U.S. if it keeps prices low, and brings quality, design and safety up to Western standards (big if). Aptera, well, that one requires a leap of faith. The company, which just returned deposits to customers, is highly dependent on a federal Department of Energy loan that is a bit of a long-shot. But Aptera insists it's still a viable enterprise. But isn't that Aptera's dashboard on the DOE home page?

My list is a snapshot in time, capturing a moment in a fast-moving terrain.

Explore further: Researchers achieve 'holy grail' of battery design: A stable lithium anode

3.7 /5 (6 votes)
add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

Ford's electric plans

Jul 18, 2011

When I think electric cars, I think the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt - then maybe Tesla and Fisker sports cars. But options for would-be electric car owners are fast expanding, and Ford is about to tap into the growing ...

Electric cars rolling out

Dec 16, 2009

(PhysOrg.com) -- Electric vehicles are far from new, but we are still a long way from electric cars being the norm. Now two new electric cars may bring that goal a step closer.

Meet the family with both a Chevy Volt and a Nissan Leaf

Mar 14, 2011

The Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf are slowly putting cars on the road, mostly in California, as the companies ramp up production and start delivering to their patient customers. GM handed out 281 Volts in February (928 ...

Ford unveils its first all-electric car (Update)

Jan 07, 2011

Ford unveiled its first strictly electric car on Friday, a Focus which is expected to get up to 100 miles (160 kilometers) on a single charge and will be available in North America late this year.

Recommended for you

Economical and agile offshore construction ship

Jul 25, 2014

Siemens is currently installing the power supply and propulsion systems into a new multi-purpose offshore construction ship for Toisa Ltd. The ship, which is being built by the Korean company Hyundai Heavy ...

User comments : 7

Adjust slider to filter visible comments by rank

Display comments: newest first

_nigmatic10
3.5 / 5 (2) Sep 06, 2011
My money is on Toyota and Nissan. Both of these companies have already done the hard part of putting the cars out there and developing the infrastructure to support them. The other cars are, so far, oddities at best and overpriced toys at the least.
jonnyboy
1.7 / 5 (6) Sep 06, 2011
overpriced, underpowered, short range, waste of money. to be bought by rich "greenies" with oversize egos.
CapitalismPrevails
1 / 5 (1) Sep 07, 2011
The chevy volt is expensive but i see it as the definite future as it is compatible with current infrastructure. If only they can make the price economical and give the battery more durability with more range(ultra-capacitor).
JackAdler
not rated yet Sep 07, 2011
@jonnyboy
There is no problem with alternative energy. Oil is too valuable to be burned in cars, it's best to look elsewhere before we need to force a change. If you don't want one, then don't buy one. It really is that simple.
Dichotomy
1 / 5 (1) Sep 07, 2011
I'm over 6ft. and was recently in a hotel with a college football team and found myself to be the shortest guy in the room by a noticable margin. How many of those players can physically fit into the above cars? Its well documented how people are getting bigger and cars are getting smaller. Its only a matter of time before we don't fit into them anymore...:)
Arkaleus
not rated yet Sep 07, 2011
The problem with these cars is that they cost too much, are too heavy, and they are purposely priced and marketed to not disrupt the economic foundation of the cartels that run the western world.

If we were serious about electric vehicles and had a truly free and open market to obtain capital and develop them, They would already be available to the middle market. Nothing prevents their availability except the manipulation of capital and restraint of trade by those who have deep vested interests in oil dependency.

If you think there we are in a free and open market for electric vehicles, study what happened to Firefly batteries. Why couldn't a proven technology like Firefly get capital? Why did they have to flee to India, never to appear in Western markets?

Also, there is Rossi's E-Cat, which may be a bigger threat to the cartels.

You can't rule the world with oil if no one needs it, and you can't prosecute imperial wars to obtain it if there is no future in it.
Ryuo
not rated yet Sep 07, 2011
Citroën c-zero ?
Mitsubishi i-MiEV ?