# Tallis was right: Numbers predict home win for QLD

##### July 5, 2011

Gorden Tallis, a Queensland Maroon legend, caused quite a stir prior to State of Origin II by suggesting on national television that the Maroons have a bigger home field advantage because Queensland fans are more passionate. Blues supporters simply were not enthusiastic enough, he said.

A of State of Origin results supports Tallis' claim, according to Professor Charles Areni at the University of Sydney Business School, who analysed wins and losses since the series began in 1980.

The Maroons won 29 matches, lost 17 and drew 1 in matches played in Lang Park/Suncorp Stadium, which indicates a big home field advantage. Statistical tests ruled out the possibility that this winning record was due simply to good luck.

By contrast, the Blues won 21, lost 16 and drew 1 in matches played in NSW. Although this is a winning percentage, it is the statistical equivalent to flipping a coin to determine the outcome of each match.

The same basic conclusion held when Professor Areni examined point spreads. In Queenland the average point spread is 4.11 in favour of the Maroons, once again too big to be due to . But in NSW the average point spread is 2.68 in favour of the Blues - a positive number - but one that could be due to chance.

The data simply do not indicate a home field advantage for the Blues, who have performed just as well on neutral grounds, with a record of 4-3 and an average margin of victory of 1.86 - numbers very similar to their performances in NSW.

When asked for a prediction of State of Origin III, Professor Areni, an ardent supporter of the Blues, said: "The numbers don't lie. The Maroons by 4."

Explore further: New Algorithm Ranks Sports Teams like Google's PageRank

## Related Stories

#### New Algorithm Ranks Sports Teams like Google's PageRank

December 15, 2009

(PhysOrg.com) -- Sports fans may be interested in a new system that ranks NFL and college football teams in a simple, straightforward way, similar to how Google PageRank ranks webpages. The new sports algorithm, called the ...

#### Can a formula predict the outcome of a soccer match?

March 5, 2010

(PhysOrg.com) -- Soccer, like most sports, is a game full of surprises and lucky or unlucky breaks. After all, if it was easy to predict the winner of a soccer match, there wouldnâ€™t be much reason to watch it. But a team ...

#### MLB teams with greater circadian advantage are more likely to succeed

June 10, 2008

The magnitude of circadian advantage influences the outcome of Major League Baseball (MLB) games in that teams with greater circadian advantage are more likely to win, according to a research abstract that will be presented ...

#### Mathematics Professor Says Yankees, Dodgers Should Make World Series

October 14, 2009

With the League Championship Series set to begin tomorrow, NJIT Mathematics Professor Bruce Bukiet has, once again, analyzed the probability of each team winning their post-season series. Bukiet updates his calculations ...

#### In College Football, Home Field Advantage Often Overestimated

November 24, 2009

This year, many of college football's biggest rivalry games take place over Thanksgiving weekend. A win earns bragging rights for the year. Visiting teams are often thought to be at a considerable disadvantage, especially ...

#### Home Field Advantage Often Overestimated In College Football

December 1, 2009

This year, many of college football's biggest rivalry games take place over Thanksgiving weekend. A win earns bragging rights for the year. Visiting teams are often thought to be at a considerable disadvantage, especially ...

## Recommended for you

#### Secrets of the paleo diet: Discovery reveals plant-based menu of prehistoric man

December 5, 2016

A tiny grape pip (scale 1mm), left on the ground some 780,000 years ago, is one of more than 9,000 remains of edible plants discovered in an old Stone Age site in Israel on the shoreline of Lake Hula in the northern Jordan ...

#### Prehistoric plant remains highlight diverse origins of cereal domestication

December 5, 2016

A study from the University of the Basque Country (UPV-EHU) and the University of Copenhagen shows that the process of cultivation and domestication of cereals occurred at different times across southwest Asia. The analyses ...

#### Geoscientists size-up early dinosaurs, find surprising variation

December 5, 2016

Look out your window, and you may see people of all ages and sizes roaming the street: a 6-foot-5-inch man walking beside a 4-foot-6-inch boy, for example, or a sprouting teen-ager who is much taller than a full-grown adult.

#### Researchers find overwhelming evidence of malaria's existence 2,000 years ago

December 5, 2016

An analysis of 2,000-year-old human remains from several regions across the Italian peninsula has confirmed the presence of malaria during the Roman Empire, addressing a longstanding debate about its pervasiveness in this ...

#### Mummified remains identified as Egyptian Queen Nefertari

December 5, 2016

A team of international archaeologists believe a pair of mummified legs on display in an Italian museum may belong to Egyptian Queen Nefertari - the favourite wife of the pharaoh Ramses II.

#### Fish fossils reveal how tails evolved

December 5, 2016

Despite their obvious physical differences, elephants, lizards and trout all have something in common. They possess elongated, flexible structures at the rear of their bodies that we call tails. But a new study by a University ...