55 million years of climate change

Jun 27, 2011
55 million years of climate change

State-of-the-art climate models, as used in the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, could be giving a false sense of security in terms of upcoming abrupt change, suggests a Commentary by a University of Bristol scientist published online this week in Nature Geoscience.

Professor Paul Valdes of the School of , discusses four examples of spanning the past 55 million years that have been reconstructed from palaeoclimate data.

In two of the cases, complex used in the assessments of future climate change did not adequately simulate the conditions before the onset of change.  In the other two cases, the models needed an unrealistically strong push to produce a change similar to that observed in records of past climate.

Professor Valdes concludes that state-of-the-art climate models may be systematically underestimating the potential for sudden climate change.

Explore further: US delays decision on Keystone pipeline project

More information: 'Built for stability' by Paul Valdes in Nature Geoscience.

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User comments : 10

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FrankHerbert
1.3 / 5 (57) Jun 27, 2011
But the Earth is only 6000 years old and has been a comfortable 72 degrees the entire time!
Peteri
4 / 5 (4) Jun 27, 2011
No Frank you are totally wrong - the universe was in fact created just 1 minute ago when I started writing this comment and it has been cleverly set up by some omnipotent deity to look as though it came into existence 6000 years or, depending on your model of reality, 13.7 billion years ago.

So all our life memories, religious texts, human history, fossil and geological records and cosmological history are just a clever illusion!

;-)
ryggesogn2
2.3 / 5 (6) Jun 27, 2011
What is the temporal resolution on that 55 million years?
NotParker
1.9 / 5 (9) Jun 27, 2011
Corrected version:

"State-of-the-art climate models are largely untested against actual occurrences of abrupt change. It is a huge leap of faith to assume that simulations of the coming century with these models will provide reliable warning of ... anything."

omatumr
1.8 / 5 (10) Jun 27, 2011
Professor Valdes concludes that state-of-the-art climate models may be systematically underestimating the potential for sudden climate change.


Professor Valdes is right.

Most "state-of-the-art climate models" simply ignore the fact that Earth's heat source is a variable star [1-3].

The geologic record simply confirms the obvious.

Most "state-of-the-art climate models" are divorced from reality.

1. "Super-fluidity in the solar interior: Implications for solar eruptions and climate",
Journal of Fusion Energy 21, 193-198 (2002)

http://arxiv.org/.../0501441

2. Rhodes Fairbridge and the idea that the solar system regulates the Earths climate, Journal of Coastal Research, SI 50 (Proceedings of the Ninth International
Coastal Symposium, Gold Coast, Australia) 955-968 (2007)

www.griffith.edu....S176.pdf

3. "Earth's Heat Source - The Sun", Energy and Environment 20, 131-144 (2009)

http://arxiv.org/pdf/0905.0704

Oliver K. Manuel

MarkyMark
4.2 / 5 (5) Jun 28, 2011
Professor Valdes concludes that state-of-the-art climate models may be systematically underestimating the potential for sudden climate change.


Professor Valdes is right.


You however are wrong! The sun is NOT made of iron, your almost religiouse belief that it is made of iron is worrying concerning your state of mind. Granted your 'Loving' attitude towards your own children i hear certainly questions your minds state to begine with. I and any decent person find such things disgusting! Hence the reason such activaties are illegall.
lengould100
1 / 5 (2) Jun 28, 2011
Who the heck is that "heartland.org" group who keep sticking nonsensicle nonscience adds onto every climate-science article on this site? If they're funded by the likes of Exxon or other fossil fuel companies as I've heard rumoured, the companies should be disbanded outright.
kaasinees
5 / 5 (2) Jun 28, 2011
Granted your 'Loving' attitude towards your own children i hear certainly questions your minds state to begine with. I and any decent person find such things disgusting! Hence the reason such activaties are illegall.


Dont worry the claims are false, it was neutron repulsion.
ryggesogn2
1.7 / 5 (6) Jun 28, 2011
"The green plan is a plan for a global constitution because the treaty will regulate economic production in every country on earth."
"The global greens dont want to talk about any of this. They dont want anybody to reflect on the obvious truth that a GGCT will be either ludicrously weak, unratifiable in the US Senate or unenforceable. (Like the Kyoto Protocol it could well be all three.) They are building a bridge to nowhere, and attacking anybody who disagrees as a flat earther."
"Its core tactic to cloak a comically absurd, impossibly complex and obviously impractical political program in the authority of science. Let anyone attack the cretinous and rickety construct of policies, trade-offs, offsets and bribes by which the greens plan to govern the world economy in the twenty first century, and they attack you as an anti-science bigot."
http://blogs.the-...rt-deux/
NotParker
1 / 5 (2) Jun 28, 2011
But the Earth is only 6000 years old and has been a comfortable 72 degrees the entire time!


"The Holocene Climate Optimum was a warm period during roughly the interval 9,000 to 5,000 years B.P."

"This warm period was followed by a gradual decline until about 2,000 years ago."

"The Holocene Climate Optimum warm event consisted of increases of up to 4 °C near the North Pole (in one study, winter warming of 3 to 9 °C and summer of 2 to 6 °C in northern central Siberia)"

"Of 140 sites across the western Arctic, there is clear evidence for warmer-than-present conditions at 120 sites."

"Sea level reached a slightly higher level than today coinciding with the warmest period of the past 10,000 years with temperatures about 2 degrees celsius higher than today."

So ... yes. 6000 years ago was an optimal time for humans. It was warmer than today.

And there were no SUV's.

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