Say goodbye to cool summers: climate study

Jun 10, 2011 by Marlowe Hood
People sunbathe in Bryant Park during a heat wave on June 9, 2011 in New York City. By 2050, the coolest summers in the tropics and parts of the northern hemisphere will still be hotter than the most scorching summers since the mid-20th century if global warming continues apace, according to a new study.

By 2050, the coolest summers in the tropics and parts of the northern hemisphere will still be hotter than the most scorching summers since the mid-20th century if global warming continues apace, according to a new study.

Tropical regions in Africa, Asia and South America could see "the permanent emergence of unprecedented summer heat" even within the next decades, said the study, to be published later this month in the journal Climatic Change Letters.

Such dramatic changes in temperature would have a major impact on human health, food supplies and biodiversity, warn the researchers.

"Large areas of the globe are likely to warm up so quickly that, by the middle of this century, even the coolest summers will be hotter than the hottest summers of the past 50 years," said lead author Noah Diffenbaugh, a professor at Stanford University's Woods Institute for the Environment.

Scientists have long predicted that driven by would cause more frequent , such as struck Europe in 2003, or the United States this week.

"That got us to thinking -- at what point can we expect the coolest seasonal temperatures to always be hotter than the historically highest temperatures for that season?" Diffenbaugh said in a statement.

To find out, he chose a basket of 50 climate models that accurately matched past increases and projected them into the future.

The analysis assumed a scenario of a "moderate" increase in heat-trapping as forecast by the UN's panel of .

A fishing boat lies on the dried up bank of the Chaohu lake, the fifth largest freshwater lake in China, as water levels remain low in Chaohu, east China's Anhui province on June 4, 2011. Wide swaths of North America, China and Mediterranean Europe are likely to enter a new "heat regime" by 2070 if global warming continues apace, according to a new study.

Many regions of the globe, they found to their surprise, can anticipate a "new normal" of summers that today would be classified a heatwave within a matter of decades.

The researchers also analysed historical data from around the world to see if the projected increase in temperatures had already begun.

"This extreme heat emergence is occurring now, and represent the historical pattern remarkably well," Diffenbaugh said.

Results differed somewhat from region to region, with the tropics being hit earliest and hardest.

In the model, up to 70 percent of summer seasons from 2010 to 2039 exceeded the late-20th century maximum in the zones straddling the Equator.

Wide swaths of North America, China and Mediterranean Europe are also likely to enter a new "heat regime" by 2070, the study found.

Recent heat waves and their consequences provide a foretaste of the ways in which hotter summers can disrupt lives, the researchers cautioned.

The likelihood of out-of-control fires such as raged across Australia and Russia in 2009 and 2010 increases dramatically with higher temperatures. Likewise loss of life: the 2003 heatwave in Europe killed some 40,000 people.

A recent report by a consortium of agriculture experts shows that projected increases could devastate staple food crops in where hundreds of millions of people are already mired in subsistence-level poverty.

The pace of species loss is also projected to gather pace as persistently hotter climate kicks in.

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omatumr
1.6 / 5 (20) Jun 10, 2011
Large areas of the globe are likely to warm up so quickly that, by the middle of this century, even the coolest summers will be hotter than the hottest summers of the past 50 years"


Because instabilities in the solar core disrupt the entire solar globe [1]?

Does violence in the solar core increase when the normal solar sunspot cycle ceases [2]?

1. Neutron repulsion rocked the entire Sun [NASA, 13 Dec 2010].

http://science1.n...at-nasa/ 2010/13dec_globaleruption/

2. Neutron repulsion explained [APEIRON Journal, in press, 2011].

http://arxiv.org/...2.1499v1

With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel
ryggesogn2
2 / 5 (27) Jun 10, 2011
hundreds of millions of people are already mired in subsistence-level poverty.

That's not due to the climate. It's due to their socialist government policies and the 'solution' proposed by AGWites is MORE socialist govt policies.
ryggesogn2
2.1 / 5 (26) Jun 10, 2011
Is it a coincidence so many AGW stories are now being reported during a major east coast heat wave?
And it is snowing in Hawaii.
Sanescience
3.1 / 5 (17) Jun 10, 2011
To find out, he chose a basket of 50 climate models


Software models for the climate are not yet reliable enough to make these predictions.

Huge holes in the understanding of weather dynamics are either filled in with hand tuned static values or left out all together. We also don't know what we don't know.

The granularity of the models are extraordinarily coarse. Atmospheric dynamics and cloud mechanisms are estimates, not simulations.

None of the models give the same answer, yet all together they are supposed to be accurate. Dig deep enough and you find that models frequently come up with answers that do not match nature. Models that claimed to match past weather patterns are quietly "put away" when past weather estimates are changed/revised or data errors are fixed.
omatumr
2 / 5 (21) Jun 10, 2011
Is it a coincidence so many AGW stories are now being reported during a major east coast heat wave?
And it is snowing in Hawaii.


No. That is the way they sell propaganda.

A grain of truth in a load of bull.
TheGhostofOtto1923
3.6 / 5 (13) Jun 10, 2011
hundreds of millions of people are already mired in subsistence-level poverty.

That's not due to the climate. It's due to their socialist government policies and the 'solution' proposed by AGWites is MORE socialist govt policies.
No, it's due to the religious mandate to outreproduce their neighbors, who are trying to do the same to them. Like in somalia. It's in your book. Buy it- read it- use it (to destroy the world.)
Shootist
1.4 / 5 (9) Jun 10, 2011
Will H.R.Hignness proclaim Scottish wine better than French?
Bob_Kob
2.8 / 5 (14) Jun 11, 2011
The funny thing is that at least by my account in the last 5 years or so the summers in australia have been getting cooler. Perhaps a reversal of global temperatures?
Ethelred
3.7 / 5 (14) Jun 11, 2011
The funny thing is that at least by my account in the last 5 years or so the summers in australia have been getting cooler.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology disagrees. This despite the Sun being on the downside half of the 22 year Solar Cycle till this year.

www.bom.gov.au/in...ated.pdf

It wouldn't have surprised me if you were right, especially for a specific area, but it seems that overall Australia was warmer in the last decade.

Ethelred
jamesrm
2.9 / 5 (14) Jun 11, 2011
"The funny thing is that at least by my account in the last 5 years or so the summers in australia have been getting cooler. Perhaps a reversal of global temperatures?"

Yep science should only ever use the few feet of the universe that YOU are the centre of, ego is not a dirty word
Loodt
2.6 / 5 (12) Jun 11, 2011
Bob, it appears as if the winter skiing conditions in Australia are improving with snow earlier and thicker than normal.

See the Andrew Bolt report of today.
MarkyMark
3.8 / 5 (12) Jun 11, 2011
Is it a coincidence so many AGW stories are now being reported during a major east coast heat wave?
And it is snowing in Hawaii.


No. That is the way they sell propaganda.

A grain of truth in a load of bull.

Probably just like those morons who try and tell us that the sun is made of iron right? ;)
Loodt
1.4 / 5 (10) Jun 11, 2011
MM, please tell me why there is no possibility that there is iron on the sun, beneath the surface, obviously molten, floating around the molten core?

Bob_Kob
1.7 / 5 (6) Jun 11, 2011
The funny thing is that at least by my account in the last 5 years or so the summers in australia have been getting cooler.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology disagrees. This despite the Sun being on the downside half of the 22 year Solar Cycle till this year.

http://www.bom.go...ated.pdf

It wouldn't have surprised me if you were right, especially for a specific area, but it seems that overall Australia was warmer in the last decade.

Ethelred


Perhaps, but as Loodt says there seem to be shifts in the timing of seasons. Ie winter coming in earlier or summer coming in later.
Ethelred
4.8 / 5 (9) Jun 11, 2011
That is just weather. Sometimes the cold comes early and sometimes late. Partly due to the El Nino cycle and also due to the 22 year Solar Cycle. Which people keep calling an eleven year cycle but it is 11 up and 11 down so it is really 22.

There is variation and there have been long term minimums. The last was the Dalton Minimum which ended in 1840 and by the numbers of Ivanka Charvátová that Oliver has spamming the site with there should have been a new minimum in 1969 with a spread of 1950 to 1980 though she made the claim it should be starting now her own figures don't support that.

Oliver hasn't had the guts to reply to that yet. So I am going to go on the assumption that he is unable to overturn my replies to his posts. Which is par for the course with Oliver.

Ethelred
Ethelred
4.8 / 5 (12) Jun 11, 2011
MM, please tell me why there is no possibility that there is iron on the sun,
No. There is iron IN the Sun. Traces.

beneath the surface,
Traces. There is no reason to think there is large a amount. And keep in mind Oliver is NOT claiming there is SOME iron existing as a plasma. He claiming a RIGID iron surface. Which is ludicrous and completely unsupported by what he claims is evidence.

obviously molten
Impossible at the temperatures involved. Small percentages should be there but as a plasma. Molten is right out. Do you have any idea of the temperatures? Millions of degrees K.>>
Ethelred
5 / 5 (9) Jun 11, 2011
floating around the molten core?
Again the temperatures are way too high AND Oliver isn't making that claim. He claims the core is a NEUTRON STAR. He has no evidence that supports this claim and the densities that his idea would involve are not those of the Sun. When this is pointed out Oliver usually just reposts the papers that are what is in question and says you should read them even if you have read them. I have read them. When he actually bothers to pretend to a make reasoned reply he really only waves his hands and produces nothing to support his hand waving.

Ethelred
Loodt
1.2 / 5 (9) Jun 11, 2011
E,

Here in the UK we live in the street, at house number so and so, not on the street as the Yanks do.

Haven't seen the phase diagrams of Iron, but the range of the molten state should be extended with pressure.

Only plasma state possible? I take your word for it. So the traces of Fe that Oliver measured has led him to extrapolate an iron layer?

Bob_Kob
2.6 / 5 (5) Jun 11, 2011
I don't recall oliver saying anywhere of a solid iron surface, rather than a core of iron with fractional layers of other elements and a helium photosphere that performs fusion.
Skeptic_Heretic
4 / 5 (8) Jun 11, 2011
Is it a coincidence so many AGW stories are now being reported during a major east coast heat wave?
And it is snowing in Hawaii.
Snow on the peaks of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea, which extend 13,500-plus feet into the atmosphere, is not rare, with some snow having fallen just a few days ago. Snow does not occur every winter, however, and when it comes, snow often arrives with a fury since it combines with the naturally higher winds of the high elevations to produce intense, wind-whipped snowstorms that would rival the worst the mainland has to offer.
http://www.aolnews.com/2011/01/12/hawaii-makes-it-49-states-with-snow-on-the-ground/

Not exactly a rare occurance, dummy.
Truthforall
2.4 / 5 (17) Jun 11, 2011
Thanks God for warm summer. 12,000 years ago we have ice sheet kilometers high, Earth has limited green area to support land baesd life.
We have been warming ever since. That is nature's doing. Why make scary story out if a GOOD thing. Life thrived because Earth warmed. One day the pendulum would swing back and life will be miserable again.
There is no point to lose an arm and leg in trying to prevent Alaska from warming enough to grow oranges. In climate warming, we win some and lose some. In cooling, we lose some and win nothing.
Howhot
2.4 / 5 (14) Jun 11, 2011
I believe the computer models (all 50). They where right in predicting past temps, so they are probably going to be correct for future events. So if 100's are going to typical for June, I guess the dog days of August will be 110 .

All you AGW deniers, better sell your homes and move up north like the enviromental refugee's you are going to be.
ryggesogn2
2.2 / 5 (19) Jun 11, 2011
They where right in predicting past temps,

Really?
What past temperatures and what was the uncertainty?
Mann's hockey stick has been cracked.
Do the 50 models account for the MWP?
NotParker
2.3 / 5 (12) Jun 11, 2011
Climate Models aren't real data.

For example, real data says that 24 out of the 50 states maximum temperature records were set in the 1930s during the super hot dust bowl.

http://en.wikiped...extremes

Or, go to this site:

http://www.metoff...monthly/

Pick UK, Mean Daily Maximum, Summer

1976 was the hottest summer. 1995 second. 2007 3rd. 1911, 1933 and 2004 tied for 4th.

Recent temperatures don't look too scary at all.

Relying on models is bull.

omatumr
1 / 5 (8) Jun 11, 2011
I don't recall oliver saying anywhere of a solid iron surface, rather than a core of iron with fractional layers of other elements and a helium photosphere that performs fusion.


Yes, measurements showed that lightweight isotopes and lightweight s-products are selectively enriched at the top of the photosphere [1].

1. "Solar abundance of elements from neutron-capture cross sections", 36th LPSC (2005)

www.lpi.usra.edu/...1033.pdf

Yesterday evening Space.com reported a Major Result on the Sunspot Cycle to be Announced Tuesday June 14 at 1:00 pm EDT in New Mexico (Los Alamos National Laboratory?). Here is the story by Dr. Michael Wall:

www.space.com/119...iew.html

With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel

KillerKopy
2.5 / 5 (8) Jun 11, 2011
I'm so scared!! Who can I write a check to so all this scary stuff wont happen?
Howhot
2.5 / 5 (8) Jun 11, 2011
Not true Not. and it doesn't matter what you believe your wrong, so deal with the heat. I know the models are correct to as best as models can predict, it's just simple math to computer geeks. Cause -- effect. In climate modeling, they usually run a large batch of simulations where the mathematical model is work for a particular theory. If the results all cluster in the same general results, that cluster has the highest probability of be correct. In the article the ran the models that correctly modeled the past, and so where the just extend the simulations into the future.

Guess what, 101 in New Jersey in June is the NEW NORMAL! I would bet on it, over your crap fakery psuedo-science mumbo jumbo.

ryggesogn2
2.1 / 5 (18) Jun 12, 2011
. I know the models are correct to as best as models can predict

You KNOW? Based upon what data? What are the uncertainties associated?
Shelgeyr
1.9 / 5 (16) Jun 12, 2011
Does anyone know if there is a fund or market where I can sell short on this prediction? I'd love to clean up in 2050 when this study turns out to be dead wrong. Which it will be. Because it is.

There has GOT to be a way for an enterprising capitalist like myself to make a fortune off of people's AGW gullibility... and I mean in some ethical manner, i.e. in some way that doesn't require pretending to believe in it, "riding the wave" of it as is currently so popular in academia.
Doschx
2.6 / 5 (5) Jun 12, 2011
@Shelgeyr: Polar Timeshares. Maybe "farming opportunities" on the tundra of today, tropics of tomorrow? Invest in GOLD? Even better, sell rising sea level a.k.a. flood insurance to every AGW institution within 1000ft of sea level.
Howhot
2.3 / 5 (9) Jun 12, 2011
R2. Anyone can download this historical data. It's all available through NOAA. In his case, the computer models correctly predicted the current climate; and the ran it longer into the future. It's reported in their paper that 100F in June for New Jersey, is not a fluke weather event, but is NOW the new normal weather event for June.
So if you don't care to believe it, fine if you want to be the dim bulb in the bunch. Basically the science says it's cause and effect. AGW to global warming to gobal climate change. There is a lot of pure rational thinking behind the AGW conclusions. So if you want to be a denier, fine you are wrong.

And by the way Sheigeyr
Sean_W
1.9 / 5 (12) Jun 12, 2011
The likelihood of out-of-control fires such as raged across Australia and Russia in 2009 and 2010 increases dramatically with higher temperatures.


El Niño and La Nina having such little chance of being involved that there is no reason to even bother confusing people by mentioning them, right?

And AGW folk, I know you like using the term "denier" for people who you haven't persuaded because you think it makes them sound as irrational and hateful as Holocaust deniers. You should be aware, however, that to many people, the term resonates suspiciously like a different word: "unbeliever".
Vendicar_Decarian
0.7 / 5 (44) Jun 12, 2011
"You should be aware, however, that to many people, the term resonates suspiciously like a different word: "unbeliever"." - Sean_W

Holocaust denial, Global Warming denial, both have their roots in the same form of self perpetuating conservative ignorance.

Denial is the proper word.

Vendicar_Decarian
0.5 / 5 (42) Jun 12, 2011
"I'm so scared!!" - KillerCopy

Fear is the mind killer, and as we can all see, yours is as dead as a door knob.

By the end of this decade, my energy consumption will be 1/10th of what it was 10 years ago, and this has been and will continue to be along with a general improvement in my quality of life.

Some require fear to be motivated. Others will only be motivated by change. Some Conservative fools will die before they change.

For rational, thinking people like myself the required change comes as easily as breathing.
Vendicar_Decarian
0.4 / 5 (43) Jun 12, 2011
"For example, real data says that 24 out of the 50 states maximum temperature records were set in the 1930s during the super hot dust bowl." - ParkerTard

Fools like ParkerTard seem to think that the U.S. is the entire world, when in fact it represents less than 2 percent of the earth's surface.

On average, temperatures have risen in the U.S. compared to the 1930's. But compared to then, the change has been slight.

The story is different in the other 98 percent of the world however.

Liars like ParkerTard love to cherry pick.
IcePowder
2.7 / 5 (11) Jun 13, 2011
Wonder how long it took them to cherry pick this particular data set or if they achieved that most prized status in modern science, grant money?...,
mosahlah
1.9 / 5 (9) Jun 13, 2011
Its cold.
omatumr
1.6 / 5 (13) Jun 13, 2011
Simple Climatology:

1. Heat source - Core of the Sun

2. Insulators - a.) Earth's atmosphere
__b.) Layers of material around solar core

Al Gore's AGW: The insulator that surrounds us is our heat source!
Howhot
2.7 / 5 (7) Jun 13, 2011
Al Gore's AGW has so far been spot on in his predictions! Although it's happening a lot faster! His is a far better theory than insulators and conductors would be my bet. Here is an interesting cherry you can pick on; the data used is available to everyone. It all points to trends that are very scary, end of the earth as we know it.

Every social engineer should do some reading and plan how to avoid the truth.

NotParker
1.7 / 5 (11) Jun 15, 2011
Actually Howhot, sea level is dropping. And it may turn out than satellite sea leve rise in the 1990s/ early 200s was a bug in the code processing satellite data.

Ice Age is coming.
emsquared
1 / 5 (2) Jun 15, 2011
"In the model, up to 70 percent of summer seasons from 2010 to 2039 exceeded the late-20th century maximum in the zones straddling the Equator."

Apparently these guys didn't get the memo (http://www.physor...ar.html) that they may want to hold off on the bold generalizations for a few years... This will be able to be directly tested, in relatively short fashion. Should prove to be a good test for the legitimacy of their models.

Too bad they didn't mention what the bottom of that range was, hopefully that too is published in the study.
zevkirsh
1 / 5 (5) Jun 18, 2011
i saw headlines about the russian government bitching about moscow's unprecedented heat wave last summer.

funniest part about it is that russians will benefit from a warming climate more than anyone except perhaps canada, greenland, and northern europe. think of how much tundra would become arable. siberia....mongolia, so MUCH land that is just difficult for mankind to live on......

of course, it is our global ancestors that will inherit this bounty. and they will thank us for it if we don't nuke civilization before we can give it to them. but we'll be long gone by then.

Caliban
2 / 5 (1) Jun 18, 2011
i saw headlines about the russian government bitching about moscow's unprecedented heat wave last summer.

funniest part about it is that russians will benefit from a warming climate more than anyone except perhaps canada, greenland, and northern europe. think of how much tundra would become arable. siberia....mongolia, so MUCH land that is just difficult for mankind to live on......

of course, it is our global ancestors that will inherit this bounty. and they will thank us for it if we don't nuke civilization before we can give it to them. but we'll be long gone by then.


And what, precisely, makes you think that Siberia and Mongolia will be miraculously converted to ARABLE land, Zev? Have you ever heard of the Gobi Desert? Do you know the definition of Tundra? WARMER doesn't necessarily lead to WETTER -regardless of how much glib gibberish you blow at it.