New study indicates carbon release to atmosphere ten times faster than in the past

Jun 05, 2011

The rate of release of carbon into the atmosphere today is nearly 10 times as fast as during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), 55.9 million years ago, the best analog we have for current global warming, according to an international team of geologists. Rate matters and this current rapid change may not allow sufficient time for the biological environment to adjust.

"We looked at the PETM because it is thought to be the best ancient analog for future climate change caused by fossil fuel burning," said Lee R. Kump, professor of geosciences, Penn State.

However, the researchers note in the current issue of Nature Geoscience, that the source of the , the rate of emission and the total amount of carbon involved in this event during the PETM are poorly characterized.

Investigations of the PETM are usually done using core samples from areas that were deep sea bottom 55.9 million years ago. These cores contain layers of calcium carbonate from that can show whether the carbon in the carbonate came from organic or inorganic sources. Unfortunately, when large amounts of greenhouse gases --carbon dioxide or methane -- are in the , the oceans become more acidic, and acid dissolves .

"We were concerned with the fidelity of the deep sea records," said Kump. "How do we determine the rate of change of atmospheric carbon if the record is incomplete? The incomplete record makes the warming appear more abrupt."

Kump and his colleagues decided to look at information coming from areas that were shallow arctic ocean bottom during the PETM. During a Worldwide Universities Network expedition to train graduate students from Penn State, the University of Southampton, University of Leeds, University of Utrecht and University of Oslo in how projects develop, the researchers visited Spitsbergen, Norway. They uncovered a supply of rock cores curated by a forward-thinking young coal-mining company geologist, Malte Jochmann.

"Deep-sea cores usually have from 10 cm to a meter (about 4 inches to 3 feet) of core corresponding to the PETM," said Kump. "The Spitsbergen cores have 150 meters (492 feet) of sediment for the PETM."

The larger sediment section, made up of mud that came into the shallow ocean contains organic matter that can also supply the carbon isotope signature and provide the greenhouse gas profile of the atmosphere. With the larger core segment, it is easier to look at what happened through time and ocean acidification would not degrade the contents.

"We think the Spitsbergen core is relatively complete and shows an interval of about 20,000 years for the injection of carbon dioxide during the PETM," said Kump.

Using the data collected from the cores, the researchers forced a computer model to in essence run backward. They set up the models to find the proper amounts of and atmospheric temperature that would have resulted in the carbon isotope ratios observed in the cores.

The outcome was a warming of from 9 to 16 degrees Fahrenheit and an acidification event in the oceans.

"Rather than the 20,000 years of the PETM which is long enough for ecological systems to adapt, carbon is now being released into the atmosphere at a rate 10 times faster," said Kump. "It is possible that this is faster than ecosystems can adapt."

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User comments : 7

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hush1
1.5 / 5 (8) Jun 05, 2011
The order: If the cause is first, the effect is sure to follow.
It is reassuring that the time between cause and effect has been narrowed down to a few picoseconds. I was worry there was too little time to respond.
ted208
2.1 / 5 (7) Jun 05, 2011
Do I have time to grab a cup of coffee, or will I be few picoseconds to late?
omatumr
1 / 5 (5) Jun 05, 2011
the researchers forced a computer model to in essence run backward. They set up the models to find the proper amounts of greenhouse gases . . .


No time for coffee now, with so many of the government's high speed computers working at break-neck speed to generate "evidence" of CO2-induced global warming before the budget hearings ahead!
Vendicar_Decarian
3 / 5 (8) Jun 05, 2011
"No time for coffee now, with so many of the government's high speed computers working at break-neck speed to generate "evidence"" - OmaTard

Awwww... And none of them churning away to simulate your thesis that the sun is made mostly of Iron.

You poor Tard....
_nigmatic10
1 / 5 (3) Jun 05, 2011
Guess it's going so fast, we'll all just explo.... *pop*
omatumr
1 / 5 (6) Jun 05, 2011
I understand that Al Gore will ride off into the sunset on a bicycle.
Vendicar_Decarian
3.3 / 5 (7) Jun 06, 2011
You understand nothing about the real world.

"I understand that Al Gore" - OmaTard