Trucks lose, ships win in warmer Arctic

May 29, 2011 By Meg Sullivan
Trucks lose, ships win in warmer Arctic
Tibbitt-Contwoyto ice road

Global warming will have a devastating effect on roads in the Arctic but open up tantalising routes for shipping, according to a study published on Sunday in the specialist journal Nature Climate Change.

Global warming over the next 40 years will cut through Arctic transportation networks like a double-edged sword, limiting access in certain areas and vastly increasing it in others, a new UCLA study predicts.

"As sea ice continues to melt, accessibility by sea will increase, but the viability of an important network of roads that depend on freezing temperatures is threatened by a warming climate," said Scott Stephenson, a UCLA graduate student in geography and the study's lead author.  

Winners are expected to be coastal communities, coastal resource-extraction operations, tourism, fishing, and shipping concerns, the researchers say. Potential losers include inland mining and timber operations, inland oil and gas drilling, and smaller inland communities, often inhabited by indigenous peoples. Even northern Canada's famed Tibbitt–Contwoyto "diamond road," said to be the world's most lucrative ice road, is expected to suffer, according to the researchers.

The findings appear in the June issue of the peer-reviewed scholarly journal Nature Climate Change.

"Popular perception holds that climate warming will mean an opening up of the Arctic, but our study shows that this is only partly so," said co-author Laurence C. Smith, a UCLA professor of geography and author of "The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future" (Dutton Books, 2010). "Rising maritime access for ships will be severely countered by falling vehicular access on land."

Along with veteran UCLA geographer John A. Agnew, Stephenson and Smith integrated existing accessibility models for the Arctic with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's widely used climate models for the coming century. The researchers averaged month-to-month accessibility rates for two time periods: 2010 to 2014 and 2045 to 2059.  They then compared the two scenarios.

With an overall anticipated temperature increase of 3.6 to 6.2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050 — and an even sharper increase of 7.2 to 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit in the winter — climate change is expected to have more dramatic effects in the Arctic than anywhere on Earth.

A major casualty will be temporary ice roads, according to the study. Constructed across frozen ground, lakes, rivers and swampy areas using compacted snow and ice and applied sheets of ice, these roads currently provide access to vast swaths of inland terrain where the construction of all-weather roads is not economically viable.

As a result, all eight countries that border the Arctic — Canada, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States — are expected to experience declines in winter-road land accessibility. Losses in access range from 11 percent to 82 percent, depending on the area, the geographers calculate.

In absolute terms, Canada and Russia stand to lose the most winter-road potential as rising temperatures will prevent up to 400,000 square miles from hardening into potential roadways, the researchers found. By 2020, the Tibbitt–Contwoyto winter road, popularized in the History Channel reality television series "Ice Road Truckers," is projected to lose 17 percent of its eight- to 10-week operating season.   

Arctic shipping routes

With the losses will come severe delays, as overland travelers are forced to combine vehicular transportation with slower means of travel, such as ferries.

An example provided in the study is a land route from the Northwest Territories capital of Yellowknife to the distant northern Canadian community of Bathurst Inlet. By mid-century, the trip, which now takes 3.8 days is expected to drag out for 6.5 days.

The study looked at accessibility for two-ton vehicles, the equivalent of a standard sedan. Losses are expected to be greater for big rigs, the researchers point out. A future project involves refining the model for a greater range of vehicles.

"Remote communities that rely on winter roads, especially those that are inland, may have to switch to air cargo services, which will dramatically increase the costs of supplies," Stephenson said. "That would make life that much harder in these communities."

By contrast, climate change is expected to breathe new life into coastal communities by increasing shipping throughout the Arctic, especially for Type A vessels, which have limited ice-breaking capabilities. (These vessels are used widely for commercial shipping in the Baltic Sea and northern Canada, but less costly vessels without ice-breaking abilities remain the norm in global shipping today, and their accessibility rates in 2050 are the subject of a future study by the same team.)

By 2050, three of the four major shipping routes will be fully accessible from July to September to Type A vessels, the study predicts. One shipping route is so new that it does not yet have a formal name. Stretching from Rotterdam, the Netherlands, to the Bering Strait, the passage was dubbed the "North Pole Route" by the study's authors.  

"If you can imagine taking a boat from Europe directly to Alaska, that would be possible according to our results for the North Pole Route," Smith said.

Also fully accessible will be the Northern Sea Route, which stretches from the small northwestern Russian port of Amderma to the small far eastern Russian port of Provideniya, and the Arctic Bridge, which stretches from the Canadian port town of Churchill to the major Russian port Murmansk, the geographers found. The Arctic Bridge is the only Arctic route that already is reliably open during summer months.

Ironically, the sea route that is not expected to become fully passable for the entire summer is the one for which explorers have held the most hope — the Northwest Passage. Still, stretching from the small Canadian archipelago community of Iqaluit to the Alaskan coastal town of Nome, the route is expected to become 30 percent more accessible to Type A vessels by 2050, the UCLA geographers calculate.

Greenland, Canada, Russia and the United States will enjoy increased access to their exclusive economic zones — the offshore waterways to which they have exclusive access for fishing and other resource extraction activities, the study states. Arctic high seas, meanwhile, will become four times more accessible, as approximately 700,000 square miles become newly navigable by Type A vessels.

"This will be good news for global shipping interests, who stand to reap savings by moving cargo through these passages rather than through the Panama Canal, Suez Canal or the Strait of Malacca," Stephenson said.

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omatumr
1.9 / 5 (22) May 29, 2011
On another blog someone suggested that "Nature" should change its name to "Religion".

This story illustrates the wisdom of that advise.

With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel
Former NASA Principal
Investigator for Apollo
NotParker
1.9 / 5 (22) May 29, 2011
Since Global Warming started in 1950 or 1900 or 1970 or some other undetermined date that no climate "scientist" agrees with, which roads have been affected?
SemiNerd
3.9 / 5 (18) May 29, 2011
Since Global Warming started in 1950 or 1900 or 1970 or some other undetermined date that no climate "scientist" agrees with, which roads have been affected?

You do understand the concept of a linear curve right? CO2 levels starting rising in the mid 1800's, and they are about 30% higher than pre-industrial age levels today. The first real documented evidence that this was affecting climate was in the late 1990's because the first day of spring was being pushed back each year in New England.

The primary effect right now is that the period of time when the ground is frozen is becoming shorter most years since then. This effect is much more striking in the Arctic, and a lot of roads depending on the ground being frozen are unusable. Today. Not in 40 years. Its well documented, but I doubt if your religious/ideological beliefs will allow you access to the information.
ryggesogn2
2.3 / 5 (16) May 29, 2011
Aren't ships more energy efficient per ton of cargo?
Vendicar_Decarian
1 / 5 (46) May 29, 2011
"The first real documented evidence that this was affecting climate was in the late 1990's because the first day of spring was being pushed back each year in New England." - SamiNerd

Statistical evidence of a seasonal shift was well established as early as the late 1970's.

ryggesogn2
2 / 5 (21) May 29, 2011
"Aspen Mountain will reopen for skiing this weekend with a better base depth of snow on Memorial Day than it had on New Year's Day."
http://www.aspent...ile=1058
Vendicar_Decarian
1.1 / 5 (50) May 29, 2011
"On another blog someone suggested that "Nature" should change its name to "Religion"." - Omaturd

Seems that nature has shaken your faith in your own stupidity.

Hence your ape like resort to anger as a means to cope with a world that isn't working out like your ideology says it should.

Poor Baby.

sstritt
3.2 / 5 (13) May 29, 2011
"On another blog someone suggested that "Nature" should change its name to "Religion"." - Omaturd

Seems that nature has shaken your faith in your own stupidity.

Hence your ape like resort to anger as a means to cope with a world that isn't working out like your ideology says it should.

Poor Baby.


I've noticed you have a propensity to hurl fecal epithets at other members. How richly ironic that you do so while describing the "ape-like" behavior of others.
NotParker
1.8 / 5 (21) May 29, 2011
Ok ... 1970, 1800s, 1990s as suggestions for when GW started.

And ... no evidence ice roads are in trouble today.

This group had no problem driving in April 2010 when it was -20C.

http://www.xof1.c...enge.php
MikPetter
4.1 / 5 (9) May 29, 2011
@NotParker if you don't look you wont find..."At some sites in discontinuous permafrost south of the Yukon River, permafrost is now thawing from both the top and the bottom. Thawing of ice-rich permafrost is presently creating thermokarst terrain in the Alaskan interior and is having significant effects on subarctic ecosystems and infrastructure (Jorgenson et al., 2001)" extract from U.S. Arctic Research Commission Permafrost Task Force Report December 2003
omatumr
2 / 5 (20) May 29, 2011
Good news:

1. The Environmental Law Center of the American Tradition Institute obtained a court order to compel the University of Virginia to honor FOI (freedom of information) requests about supposedly scientific evidence of CO2-induced global warming:

http://www.atinst...inia-to/

2. France: Russia, Japan and Canada today announced that they will not join a second round of carbon cuts under the UN's Kyoto Protocol.

www.smh.com.au/en...NmvGevYa

Bad News:

Leaders of the Western scientific community - the US National Academy of Sciences, the UKs Royal Society, the UNs IPCC, heads of government research agencies (NASA, EPA, DOE, NOAA, etc.), editors of once prestigious research journals like Nature, Science, Proceedings of the National Academy, Proceedings of the Royal Society, etc. - were apparently unaware of their changing fortunes.
Vendicar_Decarian
1.3 / 5 (50) May 29, 2011
"Aspen Mountain will reopen for skiing this weekend with a better base depth of snow on Memorial Day than it had on New Year's Day." - Tard of Tards

Snow on top of a mountain? Wow. That is truly news for Tards.
Vendicar_Decarian
1.2 / 5 (47) May 29, 2011
"And ... no evidence ice roads are in trouble today." - Tard of Tards

Melting ice roads strand truck drivers

RCMP officers used a helicopter to rescue a truck driver stranded in northern Manitoba due to thawing winter roads.

However, several other truckers are still stuck near the area of Wrong Lake.

...

Short season for winter roads
The lake, about 350 kilometres north of Winnipeg, is part of the province's 2,200-kilometre winter road system to northern and remote communities.

The roads span frozen muskeg, lakes, rivers and creeks to temporarily connect those regions with the rest of the province.

Usually, the roads would be open for about eight weeks over the season, enabling trucks to bring in a year's worth of food, fuel and supplies.

But this year the roads were open for less than a month.

Mild weather delayed their start and a warmer-than-usual spring had deteriorated ice conditions.

Vendicar_Decarian
1.4 / 5 (51) May 29, 2011
"I've noticed you have a propensity to hurl fecal epithets at other members." - Snit

Awwwww......

The Liars are getting upset at being correctly labeled as Liars.

Poor children.

Meanwhile...

The long-term records of the near-surface permafrost temperature, obtained from different parts of the permafrost zone in northern regions, show a significant warming trend during the last 30 years (Table 1). Ground temperature trends generally follow the trends in the air temperatures with a more pronounced warming in the lower latitudes (between 55° and 65° North). This recent climate warming brought soil temperatures to a surprisingly high level, about 1 to 3°C warmer than long-term averages (Figure 3). (Fedorov, 1996; Osterkamp et al., 2000; Jorgenson et al., 2001; Fedorov and Konstantinov, 2003; Gavriliev and Efremov, 2003).

http://www.arctic...sky.html
Vendicar_Decarian
1.1 / 5 (50) May 29, 2011
Re the "American Tradition Institute"

Paul Chesser Executive Director - is executive director for American Tradition Institute. Previously he was special correspondent for the Heartland Institute.

Christopher C Horner is a senior fellow with the Washington DC think tank the Competitive Enterprise Institut

Poor OmaTard. Taken time and time again by Lying anti-science Libertarian crooks and thieves.
NotParker
1.7 / 5 (17) May 29, 2011
Those weren't ice roads. They were just frozen mud from the picture. And Wrong Lake isn't very far north.
ted208
2.1 / 5 (21) May 30, 2011
Vendicar_Decarian.
Are you a climate doom trolling bot? face it your pathetic CAGW game is truly up. nature must be evil, it conspires against every unconvincing If, Could, and May the warmist have thrown against the wall with such monotonous regularity. The only people who buy it are a shrinking part of the religion or recipients of financial benefits. Your smart with words and little tit bits of information, but they no longer have the convincing ring they once had. Even the Lame stream media does not jump breathlessly at your every pronouncement of CO2 doom.
It must be hell for you poor baby.
IlliterateGraduate
3.3 / 5 (12) May 30, 2011
It seems to me that it is pretty much only American`s that are in denial over global climate change. I`m a Canadian, and from the North, and almost everyone here agrees that the climate patterns have changed significantly compared to years ago. Moreover, I`m living in Japan at the moment, and no one here harbours a shred of doubt that it is occuring. Why are so many in the USA denying this? It`s ridiculous.
Vendicar_Decarian
1.1 / 5 (46) May 30, 2011
"Sorry, VD, but the game is up." - OmaTard

Ya, your links to industry propaganda sites have been exposed.

The denial of reality is the hallmark of the Conservative Mind.
Vendicar_Decarian
0.9 / 5 (45) May 30, 2011
"face it your pathetic CAGW game is truly up. " - Poor Teddy

It takes a truly polluted mind to make such statements in the face of what is now turning out to be years of record drought, winter storms, summer heat, and Tornado's in America alone.

Global Warming Denialism in the face of all this evidence and more is a testament to the extent of the inferiority of the Conservative Mind.

Those minds will have to be exterminated.

Vendicar_Decarian
0.9 / 5 (45) May 30, 2011
"It seems to me that it is pretty much only American`s that are in denial over global climate change." - IG

Correct. The source of the Denialist plague are the Born again Christian Conservatives in America who harbor a host of quack tard ideas. Ghosts, Goblins, Gods, Aliens, Creationism, the 6,000 year old earth, pet dinosaurs, Tax cuts increase government revenue, Etc. Etc.. Etc...

The Republican Party is a Quack Tard's paradise.

Vendicar_Decarian
0.9 / 5 (45) May 30, 2011
"Your smart with words and little tit bits of information, but they no longer have the convincing ring they once had. " - Little Teddie

You mean "You are" not "Your"....

The failed American state seems to be experiencing an unusual number of weather related disasters of late.

Have you noticed? Or is your Denialist Faith preventing you from doing so?

Your way of life, like your nation, is coming to an end. You are going to remain an unhappy camper, while the rest of the world continues to laugh at you.

omatumr
1.5 / 5 (15) May 30, 2011
Did you think global climate change is independent of the Sun, a variable star?

The "science" of CO2-induced global warming was propaganda [1-5]. That game is over.

1. Suns motion and sunspots, Astron. Journal 70, 193-200 (1965).

2. Prolonged minima and the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion, Solar Physics 110, 191-220 (1987).

3. "Super-fluidity in the solar interior: Implications for solar eruptions and climate",
Journal of Fusion Energy 21, 193-198 (2002)

http://arxiv.org/.../0501441

4. "Earth's Heat Source - The Sun", Energy and Environment 20, 131-144 (2009)

http://arxiv.org/pdf/0905.0704

5. "Neutron Repulsion", The APEIRON Journal, in press, 19 pages (2011)

http://arxiv.org/...2.1499v1
Husky
2.6 / 5 (5) May 30, 2011
i say the Canadian ice road truckers lease one of those huge russian millitary landing hoovercrafts so that they could tranport heavy equipment to nordic mines regardless of the state of the permafrost, mudroads and iceroads
Skeptic_Heretic
3.8 / 5 (10) May 30, 2011
"Aspen Mountain will reopen for skiing this weekend with a better base depth of snow on Memorial Day than it had on New Year's Day."
http://www.aspent...ile=1058

More moisture in the air from higher evaporation creates more snow at higher altitudes. It's a sign of warming, you twat.
sstritt
3.5 / 5 (13) May 30, 2011
Those minds will have to be exterminated.

Enough is enough! VD is entitled to his opinions, and I suppose his puerile insults, but this not by any means the first time he has called for the EXTERMINATION of those who don't agree with him. I've had enough and am now reporting this as abuse and I call on everyone else to do the same.
NotParker
1.6 / 5 (21) May 30, 2011
More snow is a sign of cooling. Thats why snow is rare in Florida. Open minded readers could look up the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) which recently switched from the warm phase to the cold phase. These cycles last 20-30 years and make the ocean off the west coast colder.

ted208
2.3 / 5 (12) May 30, 2011
Vendicar_Decarian

"Your smart with words and little tit bits of information, but they no longer have the convincing ring they once had. " - Little Teddie

Vendi.
Can I call you Tit bits?
I didn't know you cared. I like the handle Little Teddie it makes me feel cuddle and warm inside.
At least I didn't and wouldn't call for warmist like your self to be marched off and executed. We disagree but Ive never hurt any human being or animal, cuddle Little Teddie don't push that kind of CRAP even in anger!!.
You lose again.

Skeptic_Heretic
3.2 / 5 (9) May 30, 2011
More snow is a sign of cooling. Thats why snow is rare in Florida.
Yes because Florida and Colorado sit at the same altitude...

Sometimes, NotParker, I think you're a turing test.
NotParker
1.5 / 5 (16) May 30, 2011
I'm pretty sure snow on Florida is rare. Except for 2010 with 7 snow events in one year - a record. And one more in 2011.

http://en.wikiped..._Florida

Did Florida change altitude?
Vendicar_Decarian
1.1 / 5 (47) May 31, 2011
"Did you think global climate change is independent of the Sun, a variable star?" - OmaTard

Yes, yes, yes... We know you think that the sun is a variable star that is made from Iron and is powered by neutron to neutron spandangle.

We giggle when you provide links to prove your "theories".

In any case...

The IPCC puts the best estimates on the sun's contributation to the observed warming of the globe at around 25%.

You poor little Tard....
Vendicar_Decarian
1 / 5 (43) May 31, 2011
"I'm pretty sure snow on Florida is rare. Except for 2010 with 7 snow events in one year - a record." - SnowParker

I'm pretty sure that as the overall climate warms, the models show that there is a general increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather, both rain and snow.

It has been long predicted - you know, predicted since the 1950's.

Where have you been? Cowering under your bed? Afraid that the Commies were coming to kidnap you?
Vendicar_Decarian
1 / 5 (44) May 31, 2011
"We disagree but Ive never hurt any human being or animal," - Little Teddie

Neither have I, but the brutal, and bloody revolution draws near.
Vendicar_Decarian
1 / 5 (44) May 31, 2011
"Those weren't ice roads." - ParkerTard

ya, the defintiion of an ice road has been changed. It's all part of the global communist conspiracy to make you eat Toufu.

omatumr
2.1 / 5 (17) May 31, 2011
Do think name calling is an appropriate reply to the comments of others on PhysOrg.com?

If you disagree with conclusions based on experimental measurements, and published in the scientific literature, perhaps you should ask yourself why no scientific journal publishes your emotional tirades as science.

Grow up.
NotParker
1.6 / 5 (20) May 31, 2011
First they claim warming causes more snow at higher altitudes.

Then I point out Florida had more snow events in 2010 than any previous DECADE!

Then they change their story and claim that MODELS will show that warming will also cause snow in very low altitude Florida.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha .......

People who believe in the AGW beclown themselves again.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ... ha ha ha ....
NotParker
1.5 / 5 (16) May 31, 2011
Ice roads (ice crossings, ice bridges) are frozen, human-made structures on the surface of bays, rivers, lakes, or seas in the far north. They link dry land, frozen waterways, portages and winter roads, and are usually remade each winter. ...

http://en.wikiped...Ice_road

omatumr
1.7 / 5 (17) May 31, 2011
Don't be too harsh with the blog clown who promoted the global warming scam.

Their game is up.

Al Gore's scam has been exposed.

Major nations are now abandoning the Kyoto accord, . . .

Like rats leaping from a sinking ship:

www.smh.com.au/en...NmvGevYa

Name calling is only venting anger, . . .

By those who cannot admit to themselves that they were duped by Al Gore's pseudo-science.

Hang in there!
Oliver
Vendicar_Decarian
0.9 / 5 (43) May 31, 2011
"Do think name calling is an appropriate reply to the comments of others on PhysOrg.com?" - OmaTard

It is much preferable over your non stop stream of ConservaTard stupidity and lies.

Vendicar_Decarian
0.9 / 5 (44) May 31, 2011
"Then I point out Florida had more snow events in 2010 than any previous DECADE!" - ParkerTard

Yup. With each passing decade, America seems to be suffering from more and more extreme weather events - the record space of tornado's earlier this month comes to mind.

Climatologists have long warned that with increasing global temperatures come increases in extreme weather events.

Poor ParkerTard. He confirms the predictions of Climatologists while at the same time demanding that they have the science all wrong.

Ahahahahahah... Certainly this is the hallmark of a Tard of Tards.
Vendicar_Decarian
0.9 / 5 (44) May 31, 2011
"Major nations are now abandoning the Kyoto accord." - Tard of Tards

Well that is the Tard view.

Meanwhile Back here on Planet Reality...

Emissions of the 15 countries that signed up to the Kyoto Protocol before EU enlargement fell by 6.9 percent in 2009 over the previous year, it said in a press release.
Their target under Kyoto is an overall reduction of eight percent for the 2008-2012 period compared with the benchmark year of 1990.

By the end of 2009, their emissions were 12.7 percent below those of 1990.

EU carbon emissions 'plummeted in 2009'

http://www.physor...ted.html
omatumr
1.8 / 5 (15) Jun 01, 2011
I understand that you are angry, but venting anger in public will not help Al Gore, the UN's IPCC and the global warming story regain credibility with the public.

It appears from the vote tonight in the US House of Representatives that budgets may be cut and accountability required of the federal agencies that were exposed as participants in the global climate scandal.

beta.news.yahoo.com/house-rejects-debt-limit-increase-without-cuts-231322083.html
Vendicar_Decarian
0.9 / 5 (43) Jun 01, 2011
"I've noticed you have a propensity to hurl fecal epithets at other members." - sstritTard

I agree. A knife would be better.
Vendicar_Decarian
0.9 / 5 (43) Jun 01, 2011
"It appears from the vote tonight in the US House of Representatives that budgets may be cut and accountability required of the federal agencies that were exposed as participants in the global climate scandal." - OmaTard

Which third of the government do you think the RepubliTards will cut to zero?

The Military?
Social Security, Medicade and Medicare?
Or everything else?

Ahahahahaha.........

sstritt
2.1 / 5 (7) Jun 01, 2011
"I've noticed you have a propensity to hurl fecal epithets at other members." - sstritTard

I agree. A knife would be better.

Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.
NotParker
1.7 / 5 (18) Jun 01, 2011
Cold causes snow in Florida. The planet is cooling.

Pretending that CO2 causes warming and warming causes more snow in Florida is typical among cult members.

I think deprogramming might help ... but I suspect it is too late for you.
omatumr
1 / 5 (9) Jun 01, 2011
Astronomy, astrophysics,climatology, cosmology, planetology, space and solar physics cannot advance further unless the leaders of these disciplines let go of the illusion that they can see stars.

They cannot see the Sun nor any other star !

They see only glowing balls of waste products that gravitationally accumulate around highly compact, energetic neutron stars [1].

Solar wobble (SIM) induces climate change by shifting the dense, energetic neutron star inside the photosphere [2-4].

1. "Neutron Repulsion", The APEIRON Journal, in press, 19 pages (2011)

http://arxiv.org/...2.1499v1

2. P.D. Jose, Suns motion and sunspots, Astron. J. (1965) 70, 193-200.

3. R.W. Fairbridge and J.H. Shirley, Prolonged minima and the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion, Solar Physics (1987) 110, 191-220.

4. Theodor Landscheidt, New Little Ice Age instead of Global Warming?, Energy & Environment (2003) 114, 327-350.
Shootist
2.1 / 5 (14) Jun 04, 2011
"Aspen Mountain will reopen for skiing this weekend with a better base depth of snow on Memorial Day than it had on New Year's Day." - Tard of Tards

Snow on top of a mountain? Wow. That is truly news for Tards.


Snow on top (north side of, actually) of a mountain in May, when there hasn't been snow, on those mountains, in May, in those quantities, for decades . . .

The world has been both warmer, and cooler, than it is today. When vineyards are again operating commercially in Scotland, and the King brags that Scottish wine is better than French, call me, the world will again have a climate similar to 850 years ago.
Skeptic_Heretic
3.7 / 5 (10) Jun 05, 2011
First they claim warming causes more snow at higher altitudes.

Then I point out Florida had more snow events in 2010 than any previous DECADE!
Because you're an idiot and don't seem to understand that adding energy into an oscillating system causes greater oscillation.
NotParker
1.5 / 5 (16) Jun 05, 2011
If you think climate is an oscillating system, then you have to consider that there are numerous cycles that sometimes take decades to make themselves obvious.

The PDO warm cycle for example recently ended. PDO's bring cold for 20-30 years and then warmth for 20-30 years.

I think some people just mistook the warm phase of the PDO for a warming tend, when it was just part of the warm cycle.

So what you are suggesting is that because of more CO2 there could be record cold for the next 30 years.

That would explain why there is no warming any more.

The problem with your claim is that reconstructions of the PDO show much, much colder cycles and even warmer cycles.

http://en.wikiped...00yr.svg

I really hope that we do not go back to the super cold cycles of the 1000-1200s (when there was no global warming).

Do you have any references that prove the previous PDO was unusually warm for warm PDOs or this cold PDO will be super colder?
deepsand
2.9 / 5 (15) Jun 05, 2011
None of which negates that fact that, as stated by SH, "adding energy into an oscillating system causes greater oscillation."

That means both higher highs and lower lows. Superposition with other wave forms may mask and/or highlight said peaks; but, it will not remove them.
NotParker
1.3 / 5 (14) Jun 05, 2011
The previous PDOs were more intense, therefore the claim that so-called global warming will make them more intense is falsified. If anything it appears this last warm PDO was quite weak and the opposite may be true.

And knowing skeptic heritic -- he is usually very wrong.

Same for ENSO. Older ones were more intense.

http://cdn.physor...sope.png

Certainly ACE, the measure of cyclone energy shows that recent times of very low energy.

http://www.coaps....ropical/
deepsand
2.7 / 5 (12) Jun 05, 2011
No, nothing is thus falsified.
Vendicar_Decarian
0.9 / 5 (43) Jun 06, 2011
Tards often whine that they are the subject of name calling, when in fact they are being subject to classification.

You know what classification is don't you Tard boy?

Classification is the first step in the scientific analysis of a subject.

But since you know about science, I guess the bit about classification escapes you as well.

Poor... Poor... Tard...

"Do think name calling is an appropriate reply to the comments of others on PhysOrg.com?" - OmaTard
Vendicar_Decarian
0.9 / 5 (43) Jun 06, 2011
"The previous PDOs were more intense, therefore the claim that so-called global warming will make them more intense is falsified" - ParketTard

ParkerTard seems to have conveniently overlooked the part which negates his thesis.

I append it here...

"That means both higher highs and lower lows. Superposition with other wave forms may mask and/or highlight said peaks; but, it will not remove them."

Now is NoParker just an ignorant fool, or was he being wilfully dishonest?

Given his past behaviour I can only conclude that it is willful dishonesty.

I have never encountered a Conservative who wasn't a congenital and perpetual liar.

Vendicar_Decarian
0.9 / 5 (43) Jun 06, 2011
Sometimes I think that denialists like OmaTard are in a contest to say the stupidest things possible. There must be a daily prize offered by the Koch Brothers of $100 bucks or something.

No one could be so stupid unless they were completely insane.

"Astronomy, astrophysics,climatology, cosmology, planetology, space and solar physics cannot advance further unless the leaders of these disciplines let go of the illusion that they can see stars." - OmaTard
NotParker
1.5 / 5 (15) Jun 06, 2011
Wow. Name calling instead of facts.

The previous warm PDO cycle was one of the weakest ever, meaning that the claim that cycles will be more intense is falsified.

In fact, if there really was global warming the evidence would be that global warming is GOOD for us since it minimizes extreme oscillations.

deepsand
2.7 / 5 (14) Jun 06, 2011
To repeat, nothing was thus falsified.

Kindly both study the Physics of oscillating systems, and revisit the issue of superposition.
NotParker
1.3 / 5 (13) Jun 06, 2011
Science is full of elegant theories that are very, very wrong in real life.

The last PDO was weak historically. Very, very weak.

http://en.wikiped...00yr.svg
Skeptic_Heretic
2.8 / 5 (4) Jun 07, 2011
If you think climate is an oscillating system, then you have to consider that there are numerous cycles that sometimes take decades to make themselves obvious.
I would suggest you do the same, especially seeing you're the one who is insinuating that there will be no change.
NotParker
1 / 5 (10) Jun 07, 2011
Predicting change is not a fact. A quiet PDO cycle is a fact. Theories are not facts.
Skeptic_Heretic
5 / 5 (3) Jun 08, 2011
Predicting change is not a fact. A quiet PDO cycle is a fact. Theories are not facts.

A quiet PDO cycle doesn't disprove one of the largest bodies of work ever created in science.

You're saying effectively, "I have found a bacteria with no known relatives on the tree of life, therefore evolution is false". Finding a non-sequitor piece of microdata and assuming it upsets almost 130 years of research is ridiculous.

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