Experts mixed on whether Obama's goal of 1 million electric cars by 2015 can be reached

April 14, 2011 by Bob Yirka

(PhysOrg.com) -- A recent report by the Department of Energy (DOE) stating that the United States is well on its way to meeting President Obama's goal of having at least one million plug-in electric cars and trucks on our nation's highways and byways by 2015 is in direct conflict with a another recent report from Pike Research suggesting that while worldwide sales of electric vehicles will likely pass the million mark, sales in the United States likely won't grow fast enough to reach much higher than 850,000 units by that date.

In its report, the DOE, (backed up by a statement from Assistant Energy Secretary David Sandalow) predicts that sales of plug-in electric (which excludes hybrids) vehicles will be sufficient between now and 2015 to take us over the million mark, to somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.2 million vehicles; more than enough to fulfill the president’s goal.

The president’s goal has been widely criticized as far too optimistic, especially in light of the recent recession, and production problems with the Nissan Leaf (partially due to the earthquake/tsunami in Japan) one of the all electric vehicles expected to be among the leading sellers in the near future. Adding to the fire is J.D. Powers, which came out with predictions of just 750,000 electric vehicles by 2015.

Other critics have pointed out that the issue is rather moot though, since a million electric vehicles running by 2015, would still account for less than one half of one percent of all operating vehicles by that date. Others however, point out that by passing certain milestones, electric vehicles become ever more of a viable choice for American consumers, thus, paving the way for a boon in sales in later years.

What’s not included in either report, unfortunately, due to the time frame in which they were created, is the current cost of gasoline and the possibility that it could reach $5 gallon in this country before the summer is out. While still not nearly as much as consumers are paying in Europe, it could provide a catalyst for change, and swifter acceptance of all-electric vehicles, as consumers find they have few other alternatives.

After all is said and done, it appears that despite the massive amounts of money being spent to create their projections, by both government and those in the private sector, there are just too many variables involved to accurately predict where car sales are headed; so, in the end, we’ll all likely just have to wait and see how things develop.

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John_balls
Apr 14, 2011

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Of course you can have 1 million electric cars by 2015. Get the price down to their ICE counterparts and you can double that number.

Quantum_Conundrum
Apr 14, 2011

Rank: 4 / 5 (1)

Doesn't matter.

Until someone quits sabbotaging U.S. automobile industry, I don't see how it will matter too much.

I saw a commercial on television yesterday, I think, about a new hybrid car, and it only gets 32mpg...

Wow, my old 1988Mazda got something like 33 to 35mpg even after it was 10 to 13 years old.

So these allegedly "energy efficient" cars and trucks are actually losing mpg compared to 20 years ago, and for THAT they expect people to pay 50% to 100% more for an automobile?

Quantum_Conundrum
Apr 14, 2011

Rank: 3 / 5 (1)

While still not nearly as much as consumers are paying in Europe, it could provide a catalyst for change, and swifter acceptance of all-electric vehicles, as consumers find they have few other alternatives.

there is no electric auto on the market that I am aware of which can make the average commute in Louisiana and still have energy left over to do other things you need to do: grocery shopping and other shopping, visit friends/date, well, anything really. Even if it does exist, it costs more than it's lifetime energy savings are likely to pay back, AND higher purchase costs means higher insurance costs, making it even worse.

J-n
Apr 14, 2011

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Was that commercial for the 2012 infinity M Hybrid? I believe that is the only care i've seen offering 32mpg and a hybrid.

I suspect the reason for this "loss" in MPG is due to the fact that it offers 360 horsepower. From their advertising i've seen they claim it's the only 350+ horsepower car that gets over 30mpg.

I think if you compare apples to apples things are getting better for fuel economy.

J-n
Apr 14, 2011

Rank: 5 / 5 (1)

Average commute in Lousiana is at 22min each way, which at 50mph (which, i think we both know, most commutes do not happen at max speed)is still less than 50 miles. Seeing as how, for example, the Nissan Leaf claims 100 miles as a 1 charge distance, this would seem to offer Double what you would need for your commute, giving you tons of charge for your shopping, date, etc.

desotojohn
Apr 14, 2011

Rank: 3 / 5 (1)

The Tesla Roadster battery weighs about 900 pounds. I don't know how many pounds of lithium are used in each battery, so lets assume 50%. One million electric vehicles would require 450,000,000 pounds of lithium. Most of the world's reserves of lithium carbonate are located in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. Can they produce enough lithium to meet the demand (approx 100 million pounds/year for next 4 years)?

J-n
Apr 14, 2011

Rank: not rated yet

The only place i could find an ammount of lithium in an electronic car battery stated it was around 34% of weight.

--- From "The Wiki" for "Lithium" ---

According to the US Geological Survey, Bolivia's Uyuni Desert has 5.4 million tonnes of lithium.[62][63] China may emerge as a significant producer of brine-source lithium carbonate around 2010. There is potential production of up to 55,000 tonnes per year if projects in Qinghai province and Tibet proceed.[60]

Worldwide reserves of lithium are estimated to be 23 million tonnes.[64] Using the battery efficiency figure of 400 g of lithium per kWh,[65] this gives a total maximum lithium battery capacity of 52 billion kWh which, assuming it is used exclusively for car batteries, is enough for approximately 2 billion cars with a 24 kWh battery (like a Nissan Leaf [66]).

bfast
Apr 14, 2011

Rank: 1 / 5 (1)

Electric cars will be short-lived. We are going to revert to steam power. See wikipedia entry: energy catalyzer, new cold fusion of nickel will be powering our world in 10 to 20 years. To see what this will look like, check out nickelpower.org. This blog discusses the technological, economic and social impacts of Dr. Rossi's energy catalyzer.

Gammakozy
Apr 14, 2011

Rank: 3 / 5 (2)

This goal will be added to the non-existent list of Obama's other substantive achievements. No matter. For him, the pronouncement is the achievement. He will get praise and adulation from his media groupies, and maybe even a Nobel prize in Chemistry or Physics for merely saying the words. His words are empty. But for him follow-through and and actual results do not matter. Just look at his record. His only real accomplishment has been to get elected. And he only accomplished even this by hiding who he is and lying about his intentions. As president he has done nothing that he promised. No matter. He continues to be adored by so many of the willfully blind.

Fionn
Apr 14, 2011

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Nope.wav

More idiotic energy policy. A better approach would be a mix of hydrogen, natural gas, higher mpg requirements(35 for sedans, 25 for SUVs and trucks) and requiring all new gas/diesel cars be flex-fuel, plug-in hybrids and removal of all tariffs on foreign ethanol. That would be feasible with current technology and expectations about car usage. Battery power can't cut it, and won't cut it for the immediate future.

ryggesogn2
Apr 14, 2011

Rank: 1 / 5 (1)

Must not be very good experts.

Where are those turbo diesels that get 50mpg?

VW Rabbits used to get that.

ECOnservative
Apr 14, 2011

Rank: 5 / 5 (1)

A couple of issues with Mr Obama's plans:

1) Air conditioning is rarely calculated into MPG. Here in the SW, it's not just a good idea, it's a requirement. Every electric vehicle I've seen so far comes up short in this area. Either they don't have it, or it eats the range 20% or more.

2) Command economies don't work.

Quantum_Conundrum
Apr 14, 2011

Rank: not rated yet

Average commute in Lousiana is at 22min each way,.

Let me guess...

You googled that?

You believe everything you read, eh?

unknownorgin
Apr 14, 2011

Rank: not rated yet

If the cost of an electric car from showroom to wreaking yard is divided by miles driven is not less than a gasoiline powered car people will soon stop buying them. Most people need to have at least a 300 mile range and the idea of having to hunt for a charging station every 100 miles and planing your trip around charging station locations is a big problem. What if the electric car blows a chip in the middle of montana, who would be able to repair it? The electric car and the country are not ready for large scale use of this new technology.