Warm water causes extra-cold winters in northeastern North America and Northeastern Asia
This map shows sea‑surface temperatures averaged over eight days in September 2001, as measured by NASA's Terra satellite. Dark red represents warm water (32 degrees Celsius) and purple is cold (‑2 degrees Celsius). The Gulf Stream can be seen as the orange strip extending from the eastern U.S. toward the Atlantic. Credit: Ronald Vogel, SAIC for NASA GSFC
If you're sitting on a bench in New York City's Central Park in winter, you're probably freezing. After all, the average temperature in January is 32 degrees Fahrenheit. But if you were just across the pond in Porto, Portugal, which shares New York's latitude, you'd be much warmerthe average temperature is a balmy 48 degrees Fahrenheit.
Throughout northern Europe, average winter temperatures are at least 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than similar latitudes on the northeastern coast of the United States and the eastern coast of Canada. The same phenomenon happens over the Pacific, where winters on the northeastern coast of Asia are colder than in the Pacific Northwest.
Researchers at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) have now found a mechanism that helps explain these chillier wintersand the culprit is warm water off the eastern coasts of these continents.
"These warm ocean waters off the eastern coast actually make it cold in winterit's counterintuitive," says Tapio Schneider, the Frank J. Gilloon Professor of Environmental Science and Engineering.
Schneider and Yohai Kaspi, a postdoctoral fellow at Caltech, describe their work in a paper published in the March 31 issue of the journal Nature.
Using computer simulations of the atmosphere, the researchers found that the warm water off an eastern coast will heat the air above it and lead to the formation of atmospheric waves, drawing cold air from the northern polar region. The cold air forms a plume just to the west of the warm water. In the case of the Atlantic Ocean, this means the frigid air ends up right over the northeastern United States and eastern Canada.
This image, taken by NASA's Terra satellite in March 2003, shows a much colder North America than Europe‑‑even at equal latitudes. White represents areas with more than 50 percent snow cover. NASA's Aqua satellite also measured water temperatures. Water between 0 and ‑15 degrees Celsius is in pink, while water between ‑15 and ‑28 degrees Celsius is in purple. Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio; George Riggs (NASA/SSAI).
For decades, the conventional explanation for the cross-oceanic temperature difference was that the Gulf Stream delivers warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to northern Europe. But in 2002, research showed that ocean currents aren't capable of transporting that much heat, instead contributing only up to 10 percent of the warming.Kaspi's and Schneider's work reveals a mechanism that helps create a temperature contrast not by warming Europe, but by cooling the eastern United States. Surprisingly, it's the Gulf Stream that causes this cooling.
In the northern hemisphere, the subtropical ocean currents circulate in a clockwise direction, bringing an influx of warm water from low latitudes into the western part of the ocean. These warm waters heat the air above it.
"It's not that the warm Gulf Stream waters substantially heat up Europe," Kaspi says. "But the existence of the Gulf Stream near the U.S. coast is causing the cooling of the northeastern United States."
The researchers' computer model simulates a simplified, ocean-covered Earth with a warm region to mimic the coastal reservoir of warm water in the Gulf Stream. The simulations show that such a warm spot produces so-called Rossby waves.
Generally speaking, Rossby waves are large atmospheric waveswith wavelengths that stretch for more than 1,000 miles. They form when the path of moving air is deflected due to Earth's rotation, a phenomenon known as the Coriolis effect. In a way similar to how gravity is the force that produces water waves on the surface of a pond, the Coriolis force is responsible for Rossby waves.
In the simulations, the warm water produces stationary Rossby waves, in which the peaks and valleys of the waves don't move, but the waves still transfer energy. In the northern hemisphere, the stationary Rossby waves cause air to circulate in a clockwise direction just to the west of the warm region. To the east of the warm region, the air swirls in the counterclockwise direction. These motions draw in cold air from the north, balancing the heating over the warm ocean waters.
To gain insight into the mechanisms that control the atmospheric dynamics, the researchers speed up Earth's rotation in the simulations. In those cases, the plume of cold air gets biggerwhich is consistent with it being a stationary Rossby-wave plume. Most other atmospheric features would get smaller if the planet were to spin faster.
Although it's long been known that a heat source could produce Rossby waves, which can then form plumes, this is the first time anyone has shown how the mechanism causes cooling that extends west of the heat source. According to the researchers, the cooling effect could account for 30 to 50 percent of the temperature difference across oceans.
This process also explains why the cold region is just as big for both North America and Asia, despite the continents being so different in topography and size. The Rossby-wave induced cooling depends on heating air over warm ocean water. Since the warm currents along western ocean boundaries in both the Pacific and Atlantic are similar, the resulting cold region to their west would be similar as well.
The next step, Schneider says, is to build simulations that more realistically reflect what happens on Earth. Future simulations would incorporate more complex features like continents and cloud feedbacks.
More information: The research is described in the Nature paper: "Winter cold of eastern continental boundaries induced by warm ocean waters"
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California Institute of Technology
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Mar 30, 2011
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Mar 30, 2011
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Mar 30, 2011
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No the opposite. If the ocean circulations were to stop based on this model it would mean the eastern coast would retain more heat, thus sucking down more cold air from the north keeping the eastern coast colder.
Mar 30, 2011
Rank: 2 / 5 (3)
There have been several articles on this site that say ocean sediment cores indicate that fresh water does not shut down the ocean conveyor in either the atlantic or pacific. They say that there is no evidence for increased stratification either. Keep in mind that there is relatively recent evidence for the effects of massive amounts of fresh melt water entering the oceans. The paleo record for this is relatively good.
Mar 30, 2011
Rank: 2.5 / 5 (11)
We know how accurate those aren't.
Mar 31, 2011
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First, it was AGW causes drought and desertification! Then, it was AGW causes rain and floods! Now, it's AGW causes cold and snow!
Is there anything left AGW doesn't cause? Can I claim AGW ate my tax returns?
Mar 31, 2011
Rank: 2.3 / 5 (12)
Physics, mathematics, and chemistry are 'hard' sciences--we can understand their rules well enough to make accurate predictions. Psychology and climatology are soft sciences because, although we understand the fundamental rules upon which they are based, they are unpredictable because of many missing and low-precision variables, and because they are chaotic. The only variables we have in climatology with any notable degree of precision are satellite temperature measurements, and they show a simple correlation between the recent increase in solar output and Earth temperature.
Please understand that there are notable ignoble powers that drive AGW regardless of science:
1. A desire of 'scientists' for funding
2. A jealousy of perceived wealth of industry
3. ..and of the west
4. A desire of rulers to control industry
Mar 31, 2011
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Mar 31, 2011
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Scientists and others have been trying to discount numerical climatology since the 50's without much success. Wonder why!!!
Mar 31, 2011
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Mar 31, 2011
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And even though it's also the case with the subject matter of this article, the article itself isn't talking about WEATHER. It's talking about regional CLIMATE (which is another way of saying weather averaged over large time spans.) And, it has only a tangential relevance to GLOBAL CLIMATE (or, AGW -- where the 'G' stands for 'Global').
Mar 31, 2011
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Mar 31, 2011
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Apr 01, 2011
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I heat my house via two methods, steam radiator heat and a pellet stove.
Now if I set the furnace and don't adjust the setting I can change the temperature on demand in the room using the pellet stove and vice versa.
Now let's say I vary the furnace at a known interval by 5 degrees. I can still control the temperature of the room, on demand, using the pellet stove.
This example is merely to show how when you know the cycles of the variables you can measure and account for them, getting a result of the entire system.
Unless you can quantify an unknown aspect and show the impact of it, you'll be entirely unable to derive a point from this line of reasoning.
Apr 02, 2011
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Apr 02, 2011
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Apr 04, 2011
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Apr 04, 2011
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Apr 04, 2011
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You're attempted strawman fails miserably. My use of "long term" was in regards to continuous drought, desertification and significant sea level rise, that should be evident and ongoing, now.
Some examples:
http://www.massli...ons.html
http://www.freere...01/posts
Apr 04, 2011
Rank: 3 / 5 (2)
Venus? You're the one who has thought deeply on the issue. Please enlighten me.And all immune to climatic disruption?Distortion of radiative balance has no effect on local climates in a complex and interlinked dynamical system that is the global climate?NOW?? Most of the IPCC predictions target circa 2100. Are you communicating to us from the future?
Apr 04, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (2)
"There appears to be something fundamentally wrong with the way temperature and carbon are linked in climate models."
http://www.scienc...4956.htm
Here's one that nicely describes why climate modeling is inaccurate:
http://theresilie...-science
Here's one about failed mountain flora predictions:
http://www.gazett...dictions
And here's a blog entry with lots of citations that I found interesting:
http://oneutah.or...warming/
More predictions biting the dust:
http://blogs.news...ictions/
Anyway, there's a lot of information on the failures of AGW predictions.
Apr 04, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (2)
http://en.wikiped...eruv.jpg
http://en.wikiped...0124.jpg
Mars' atmosphere is too thin to visualize in this way, but here's a climate map:
http://en.wikiped...ones.jpg
It's also important to note that mars has seasons, but the seasonal temperatures from year to year are highly predictable:
"...every northern spring and early northern summer yet observed were identical to within the level of experimental error..."
http://en.wikiped...perature
Apr 04, 2011
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Apr 04, 2011
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Apr 04, 2011
Rank: 3 / 5 (2)
Anyway, what does ANY of that have to do with the article above?
Apr 04, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (2)
Strawman argument:
1.Person A has position X.
2.Person B disregards certain key points of X and instead presents the superficially similar position Y. Thus, Y is a resulting distorted version of X and can be set up in several ways, including:
1.Presenting a misrepresentation of the opponent's position.
2.Quoting an opponent's words out of context i.e. choosing quotations that misrepresent the opponent's actual intentions (see contextomy and quote mining).[2]
5.Oversimplifying an opponent's argument, then attacking this oversimplified version.
Person B attacks position Y, concluding that X is false/incorrect/flawed.
http://en.wikiped...traw_man
Any of that sounding familiar?
If you can't stay in context, then ther's no point to continuing.
Apr 04, 2011
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Remember, unlike you I'm not omniscient, and can't read your mind. Express yourself.
Apr 04, 2011
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Apr 04, 2011
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Why did you cease talking of planetary climate models? Because I demonstrated you were WRONG, perhaps?
It seems you really ARE this stupid!
Apr 04, 2011
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Apr 04, 2011
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Apr 04, 2011
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Why did you you bypass this:
"Vaguely, but only in as it affects sea temp differences. You're avoiding the broader context."
Why did you misdirect the conversation to Mars and Venus to begin with? And, why didn't you acknowledge that you were wrong about Mars and Venus and return to the point of this part of the conversation, which was to respond to the question:
"Why do other planetary atmospheres tend to be banded, but not Earth's?"As it's evident you can't retain the context of a conversation, I would suggest the brain injury is yours.
Apr 04, 2011
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Apr 04, 2011
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Apr 04, 2011
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"Is there anything left AGW doesn't cause? Can I claim AGW ate my tax returns?"
If you wish to argue with yourself, I won't stand in your way.Are they really? And of what relevance are longitudinal flows to latitudinal temperature differentials between regional climates?Why did you bring up atmospheric bands, then?
Apr 04, 2011
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Apr 04, 2011
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WHAT POINT were you trying to make with your atmospheric bands, uba? I really, genuinely, don't get what you're trying to say. But maybe you don't either...
Apr 04, 2011
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Apr 04, 2011
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Earth's relatively unique longitudinal flows are the "delivery boy" for these climate variatiations. But, the underlying cause of these flows is much more complicated than the article would suggest.
http://en.wikiped...features
Apr 04, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (2)
At least I'm not seeing things that aren't there...
To late to even hope you'll carry an honest conversation.
Like worlds with banded atmospheres, which feature consistent latitudinal climates.
Apr 04, 2011
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As it's apparent your intentions here are dishonorable, I no longer feel obliged to continue with this conversation.
Apr 04, 2011
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Apr 04, 2011
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Apr 05, 2011
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What is your vested interest in the discussion? Is it scientific integrity? Preventing taxation? Preventing global pollution? Preventing the dissemination of scientific theory? Forwarding a different scientific theory?
I ask because it appears no one can or has been able to put this into context properly for you. I'd like to do so in order for you to make up your own mind on the topic.
Apr 05, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (1)
First, I'm making the point that climate scientists use grossly oversimplified models.
And second, I'd like to discuss the dual latitudinal climate cases discussed in the article and examine further their underlying causes.
Apr 05, 2011
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Let me rephrase so it's a bit clearer. What is your vested interest in discussions on climate?
Apr 05, 2011
Rank: 3 / 5 (2)
The study described above is exemplary of first-order modeling. Here, the major effect is the longitudinal temperature gradient created by a longitudinal narrow region of warm water (the Gulf Stream.) Second-order effects might arise due to topography of continents and ocean shorelines -- that will be the next model they construct.
Apr 05, 2011
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As you posed the question, may I presume then that you have a vested interest? How so?
Apr 05, 2011
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a.k.a. gross oversimplification.
Apr 05, 2011
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Apr 05, 2011
Rank: 5 / 5 (1)
No implication of you having an inability to understand. I tend to be a bit verbose, and that can confuse other participants regardless of their intellect or ability with the language. In short, sometimes I don't phrase the question properly.
In any event, my vested interest is the health and well being of future generations of human beings.
Now I ask because I find your implied stance on established scientific principle and methodology to be rather disagreeable.
Apr 06, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (2)
Seriously, can you even HAVE a civil discussion?
Apr 06, 2011
Rank: 3 / 5 (2)
"WHERE was AGW -- or anything related to AGW -- mentioned in the article? Quote, please."
Apr 06, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (3)
"My only implication is of you having some difficulty understanding my questions and intentions."
Is this a correct interpretation?
The written language is quite limited and generally lacks inflection and non-verbal nuances. Proper phrasing is critical.
Okay. I feel that way too.
If I'm disagreeable, it's because I find fault with the methodology. It's too often more conjecture and speculation, than principled scientific investigation.
Apr 06, 2011
Rank: 1 / 5 (3)
Apparently not. Seriously... are you always like this?
Apr 06, 2011
Rank: 3 / 5 (2)
Apr 07, 2011
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