Mathematical model forecasts fewer workplace accidents in 2011 and 2012 in Spain

Dec 21, 2010
A mathematical model forecasts fewer workplace accidents in 2011 and 2012. Credit: SINC

The number of workplace accidents in Spain will fall progressively over 2011 and 2012, according to the predictions made by a mathematical model developed by researchers from the University of Castilla-La Mancha. The biggest drop will be in the number of accidents that take place during travel between people's homes and places of work.

Two researchers from the University of Castilla-La Mancha have combined mathematical models (univariate and multivariate) to generate a new one that makes it possible to predict the evolution of workplace accidents at varying levels of seriousness: slight, serious and fatal, including those that take place in itinere (between home and work). The details have been published in the journal Reliability Engineering & System Safety.

Over recent weeks, the authors have updated the model for the 2010-2012 period. Analysis of the results shows a decline in the number of accidents in nearly all the series evaluated. According to the model, there will only be an increase in accidents where no absence from work is requested (rising from 804,526 in 2010 to 809,985 in 2012).

Between these two years, fatal accidents will go from 584 to 490, serious ones from 4,970 to 4,476, and slight ones, which are the most numerous (around 550,000 per year), will also undergo a small decline.

"The decreasing trend is sharper among serious and fatal in itinere accidents, which will decline by 66.12% and 75,50% respectively by the end of 2012", María del Carmen Carnero and Diego José Pedregal, the authors of the study, tell SINC.

The researchers say that these positive results "are a reflection of the actions taken to reduce the number of traffic accidents, as well as to involve the media in consolidating and developing the culture of prevention".

Spanish Occupational Safety and Health Strategy

According to the authors, these forecasts can be used to show the short-term efficiency of the Spanish Occupational Safety and Health Strategy (2007-2012). The objectives of this programme are to reduce the occupational accident rate to bring in line with average levels for the European Union and continuously improve the levels of health and safety at work.

For years such as 2008, the model does not show this strategy to have been effective yet, but it is for the 2010-2012 period. "However, the positive data must be taken with caution, because these must be compensated by the decline in employment in the country in sectors which commonly hire temporary workers, immigrants or subcontractors, such as the construction sector", warn Carnero and Pedregal.

To prove that the good results are being maintained "we need a new evaluation of the Strategy when there are real data on the number of accidents in 2011 and 2012, and particularly when the activity level in all sectors returns to average stable levels once the current economic crisis is over", the researchers conclude.

Explore further: Can science eliminate extreme poverty?

More information: María del Carmen Carnero y Diego José Pedregal. "Modelling and forecasting occupational accidents of different severity levels in Spain". Reliability Engineering and System Safety. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 95 (11): 1134-1141, noviembre de 2010. Doi:10.1016/j.ress.2010.07.003

Provided by FECYT - Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology

not rated yet
add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

Speed cameras do reduce accidents, say researchers

Sep 12, 2008

(PhysOrg.com) -- Scientists at the University of Liverpool have developed an accident prediction model which proves that speed cameras are effective in reducing the number of road traffic accidents by 20 per cent.

Ten minutes could prevent one-third of road deaths

Sep 01, 2010

Spanish researchers have calculated the probability of dying in road accidents on the basis of the time taken for the emergency services to arrive. Their conclusions are clear - reducing the time between an ...

Recommended for you

Study finds law dramatically curbing need for speed

3 hours ago

Almost seven years have passed since Ontario's street-racing legislation hit the books and, according to one Western researcher, it has succeeded in putting the brakes on the number of convictions and, more importantly, injuries ...

Newlyweds, be careful what you wish for

Apr 17, 2014

A statistical analysis of the gift "fulfillments" at several hundred online wedding gift registries suggests that wedding guests are caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to buying an appropriate gift for the ...

User comments : 0

More news stories

Study finds law dramatically curbing need for speed

Almost seven years have passed since Ontario's street-racing legislation hit the books and, according to one Western researcher, it has succeeded in putting the brakes on the number of convictions and, more importantly, injuries ...

Continents may be a key feature of Super-Earths

Huge Earth-like planets that have both continents and oceans may be better at harboring extraterrestrial life than those that are water-only worlds. A new study gives hope for the possibility that many super-Earth ...

Researchers successfully clone adult human stem cells

(Phys.org) —An international team of researchers, led by Robert Lanza, of Advanced Cell Technology, has announced that they have performed the first successful cloning of adult human skin cells into stem ...

Under some LED bulbs whites aren't 'whiter than white'

For years, companies have been adding whiteners to laundry detergent, paints, plastics, paper and fabrics to make whites look "whiter than white," but now, with a switch away from incandescent and fluorescent lighting, different ...