Roundtable looks at longevity and the boomers
October 25, 2010 By Cynthia Haven
NBC News special correspondent Tom Brokaw moderated the event.
It's been called "elderquake" and "the silver tsunami." Its statistics are staggering: Over the next three decades, the number of people older than 65 in the United States will double from 40 million to 80 million.
According to Stanford University President John Hennessy, "Medicare and Social Security will be equal to the entire tax revenue of the country" by mid-century. Unless something changes, we are facing a future, he said, with "no money left for defense, no money for education, no money for research."
Hennessy was one of six leaders from the worlds of business, law and academia engaged in a wide-ranging discussion during the fifth annual Roundtable at Stanford on Oct. 23. Tom Brokaw of NBC News moderated "Generation Ageless: Longevity and the Boomers."
Panelists said the widely ignored aspects of an aging population will affect every aspect of our lives social, political and economic.
For one participant, it already has. Sandra Day O'Connor recalled stepping down from the Supreme Court in 2006 to care for her husband, who had Alzheimer's disease (he died last year after 57 years of marriage). The couple moved closer to family in Arizona. Brokaw asked if she and her husband had discussed the possibility that one of them would be disabled in old age in the years before his diagnosis.
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The fifth annual Roundtable was held at Maples Pavilion.
"Of course not!" she said emphatically. "You just assume you're fine. Things will go on." The disease altered her perspective, making her aware how much Alzheimer's is a huge threat to our collective future."I turned 80, I don't even like to say the word," she said. However, noting that one in every two people has Alzheimer's after turning 80, she said her chances of contracting the disease are significant.
"What are we going to do?" she asked. She recalled that we have attacked other diseases "on a broad scale" to find a remedy Brokaw later mentioned the pink-ribbon campaigns against breast cancer, and the visibility of the Mothers Against Drunk Driving. O'Connor added, "We have not done that for Alzheimer's, and we must we really must."
According to Laura Carstensen, founding director of the Stanford Center on Longevity, in less than a century, we have added 30 years to life expectancy, yet "we haven't established new norms about life and family."
Barry Rand, chief executive officer of AARP, which represents 40 million people who are 50 and older, reinforced Carstensen's suggestion that we spread the chores of life around to extend productivity into old age and relieve the stress on the "sandwich generation" that cares for children and parents at the same time.
He said of the group represented by AARP, 41 percent still finance their children, 30 percent take care of parents.
Speaking of the elderly, he said, "What they don't want to do is extend those bonus years in doing nothing." He said they feel "there's a future, I'm still involved in that future, I want to help make that future." They are looking for "where they can add value."
They are also concerned about the future of their children and grandchildren.
They don't want this economy to suddenly leave their kids out, he said.
Several panelists suggested raising the retirement age from 65.
"I love to work always did," said O'Connor. "Many people of my age feel that way. "
However, she noted the repercussions of raising the retirement age from 60 to 62 in France, where strikes and riots have wracked the nation.
"My goodness, the whole country blew up," she said.
Several panelists stressed the need for more workplace opportunities to defray the cost of a retired population. Rand called for an end to age discrimination in hiring. He said the last few years have seen "100 percent increase in age discrimination (actions), because people can't find jobs."
Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer at Facebook, also underscored the importance of keeping people in the workplace, particularly women.
"Corporations have changed a lot" in regard to sexual discrimination, she said. "What hasn't changed quite is the home."
Women still bear the burden of caring for elderly parents, and a daughter or daughter-in-law is likely to have that role "three times as much as husbands or brothers," Sandberg said.
With an aging population, "how many more women does that drive out of the workforce?" she asked.
"In Silicon Valley, we're great at technology, but very insularly focused," Sandberg said. "The issues represented here are very real. We know the numbers don't add up."
Issues of longevity underscore inequities in society, and quality of caregiving is largely a function of income.
"If you're physically fit, mentally sharp, and financially secure, you do really well as an old person," Carstensen said. "We know already that people with high levels of education fare very well into very advanced ages."
Neuroscientist and Stanford professor Robert Sapolsky said issues of longevity increasingly have "everything to do with social status very little to do with who came down with polio or bubonic plague."
More and more, he said, it boils down to "did you pick the right womb?" If, when you arrive at old age, you have a lifetime of being "peripheralized," the years will make "every metaphorical joint arthritic."
During a discussion about obesity in the young, which threatens to add to long-term costs to health care, Sapolsky said we are now facing questions that go beyond the questions raised in traditional research, because of the "totally bizarre disease we deal with a world of kids getting diabetes."
"When people are feeling unhappy, why do they eat starch?" he asked.
Sandberg, speaking for the "tweeners" struck a hopeful note in the general atmosphere of alarm.
"We think technology can redefine what it means to age," she said.
She noted that half the boomers have a social networking profile, and that "Facebook can help people watch their grandkids grow up" when great distances divide them.
Carstensen, too, put a characteristically positive spin on the dire statistics.
"We're at a historical point where three, four and five generations may be alive at the same time," she said. "A hundred years ago, 20 percent of kids were orphaned before they were 18."
Often that's framed as a problem, but she asked the audience to imagine a family where grandparents, great-grandparents, and perhaps even great-great grandparents are "all invested in the well-being of the youngest among us."
"It's a fantastic achievement," she said.
Provided by
Stanford University
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Oct 25, 2010
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the reasoning for this is simple.
If average life expectancy is improving by 30 years per 100 years, then than is an average of 3 years per 10 years.
So when moving retirement age back by a half year per year, by the time 10 years happens, people will be retiring 5 years later, but they will also be living 3 years longer. By the time they are retiring 10 years later, they would be living 6 years longer.
Else, many people who are currently 65, just retiring, will actually spend more years drawing federal retirement income than the amount of years they were actually in the workforce. by the time we consider the inevitable advances in medical technology through stem cells and the possible regenerative medicine or cloning of organs, a significant portion of these people may live to be 150 years old if they can avoid brain cancers, thus drawing retirement for 85 years.
Oct 25, 2010
Rank: 2 / 5 (1)
When the average life expectancy goes up, it goes up for those being born today, not for those who are currently alive.
Average life expectancy for someone born in 1980 is still 76 years old on average in the US. Life expectancy for someone born in 2010 is approximately 94. Now these calculation are very rough and are primarily based on economic prosperity, medical advances, etc.
Increasing the retirement age as you have it is ludicrus in the extreme when looking at the actual values and how the statistics apply.
Oct 25, 2010
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You fail to realize medical technologies in the future are likely to be of a huge "milestone" type. Regenerative medicine and cloned organ transplants will be to this generation and future generations what the invention of the vaccine or refrigeration were in the past.
Additionally, there is a lifestyle aspect, whereby fewer and fewer of us have demanding physical jobs due to technology and automation, therefore fewer critical injuries and less people "working themselves to death" as was the case 100 years ago.
There's more than any one variable to consider. the longer your life expectancy, the more likely you live to see another advance that increases your life expectancy further.
You don't think MRI has influenced the life expectancy of people born before MRI was invented? How silly! or new anti-biotics, or permanently sterile materials in manufacturing or food prep?
Oct 25, 2010
Rank: 5 / 5 (1)
So how could invention of new vaccines, new antibiotics, or new germ-proof materials in food prep and manufacturing that has been invented even in the past 5 years, not have a positive influence on my life expectancy?
Oct 25, 2010
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Oct 25, 2010
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you fail to realize that those societies that benefit most from technology , also eventually become its victims. the success of 'western' medicine will continue to victimize them in the way the financial suffering caused by the outsized expectations for treatment in the u.s. and elsewhere.