Climate change may alter natural climate cycles of Pacific

Oct 17, 2010

While it's still hotly debated among scientists whether climate change causes a shift from the traditional form of El Nino to one known as El Nino Modoki, online in the journal Nature Geoscience, scientists now say that El Nino Modoki affects long-term changes in currents in the North Pacific Ocean.

El Nino is a periodic warming in the eastern tropical Pacific that occurs along the coast of South America. Recently, scientists have noticed that El Nino warming is stronger in the Central Pacific rather than the Eastern Pacific, a phenomenon known as El Nino Modoki (Modoki is a Japanese term for "similar, but different").

Last year, the journal Nature published a paper that found is behind this shift from El Nino to El Nino Modoki. While the findings of that paper are still being debated, this latest paper in Nature Geoscience presents evidence that El Nino Modoki drives a known as the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO).

"We've found that El Nino Modoki is responsible for changes in the NPGO,"said Emanuele Di Lorenzo, associate professor in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. "The reason this is important is because the NPGO has significant effects on fish stocks and ocean nutrient distributions in the Pacific, especially along the west coast of the United States."

The NPGO, first named two years ago by Di Lorenzo and colleagues in a paper in , explained for the first time long-term changes in of the North Pacific, which scientists now link to an increasing number of dramatic transitions in coastal .

"The ecosystems of the Pacific may very well become more sensitive to the NPGO in the future," said Di Lorenzo. "Our data show that this NPGO is definitively linked to Modoki, so as Modoki becomes more frequent in the central tropical Pacific, the NPGO will also intensify."

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Provided by Georgia Institute of Technology

3.5 /5 (23 votes)

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Parsec
3.9 / 5 (15) Oct 17, 2010
Climate deniers seem to fall in 3 main groups. The first camp says that sure its true we are getting warmer, but thats a good thing cause crops grow better, etc. They simply ignore the difficulty of moving people and ecosystems out of their current locations. The second camp says that it's all a lie and the temperature isn't increasing. They ignore the huge amount of data to the contrary. The third camp says sure the temperature is increasing but mankind couldn't possibly be at fault. This group ignores the science behind global warming as well as the data.

So... Any of you guys ever question if your wrong? You might want to look at what your ignoring and double check.

What if after everything is said and done, AGW is a real threat? Are you willing to bet the lives of literally millions of people on your scientific knowledge and intellectual acumen?
deatopmg
1.9 / 5 (13) Oct 17, 2010

So... Any of you guys ever question if your wrong? You might want to look at what your ignoring and double check.
(BTW - not: your, but: you're)
A question: have you?, since you appear to be operating in panic mode? Not a good time to try to reason something out.


What if after everything is said and done, AGW is a real threat? Are you willing to bet the lives of literally millions of people on your scientific knowledge and intellectual acumen?

Are you willing to bet the 10's of millions of lives if we take even just one of the proposed actions, "cap and trade" . Wall St gets richer, we all (developed and developing nations) go to the poor house, CO2 may stop rising (eventually) [because no one can afford to buy fossil fuels, but the forests get cut down because first we must eat and keep warm], and there is no change in climate change because it is driven by natural events.

Evidence always trumps models.

Things are no where near as bad as you wish they were.
omatumr
1.5 / 5 (8) Oct 17, 2010
What if after everything is said and done, AGW is a real threat?


A short video, "Scientific Genesis: The Origin of the Solar System", contains information about the causes of climate change and how that relates to the origin of the solar system.

It argues against dogmatic sciences and dogmatic religions.

www.youtube.com/w...e_Qk-q7M

With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel
Former NASA Principal
Investigator for Apollo
Vendicar_Decarian
3.4 / 5 (5) Oct 17, 2010
"Are you willing to bet the 10's of millions of lives if we take even just one of the proposed actions, "cap and trade" - Tard

That is what the Conservative Economists have demanded.

ArtflDgr
3.7 / 5 (3) Oct 18, 2010
Climate change may alter natural climate cycles of Pacific [and then again, it may not]...
Shootist
1.6 / 5 (7) Oct 18, 2010
Climate deniers seem to fall in 3 main groups.


Freeman Dyson falls where?

What if after everything is said and done, AGW is a real threat? Are you willing to bet the lives of literally millions of people on your scientific knowledge and intellectual acumen?


Are you willing to bet trillions of dollars, pounds, euros, yen, and yuan on completely unproven (anthropomorphic) global warming?

Dyson isn't and he knows more about climate than you, or I, ever will.
Skeptic_Heretic
4.3 / 5 (6) Oct 18, 2010
Freeman Dyson falls where?
In the realm of often quotemined experts who never said what the ignorant masses claim they've said.
"One of the main causes of warming is the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulting from our burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal and natural gas." - Freeman Dyson, (8 August 2007). "Heretical Thoughts about Science and Society"

http://www.edge.o...dex.html

Dyson disagrees with the predictions of some models due to his disagreement with the modeling involved with clouds, dust, and particulates. He does not dispute AGCC or the potential rammifications.
I conclude from this calculation that the problem of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a problem of land management, not a problem of meteorology. No computer model of atmosphere and ocean can hope to predict the way we shall manage our land.

And this is the track that most of us agree with.
Shootist
1.7 / 5 (6) Oct 18, 2010
Spin it any way you like.

Dyson accuses them of relying too heavily on computer-generated climate models that foresee a Grand Guignol of imminent world devastation as icecaps melt, oceans rise and storms and plagues sweep the earth, and he blames the pair’s “lousy science” for “distracting public attention” from “more serious and more immediate dangers to the planet.”

“The polar bears will be fine,” (Dyson) assured her."

"To the planet, he suggests, the rising carbon may well be a MacGuffin, a striking yet ultimately benign occurrence in what Dyson says is still “a relatively cool period in the earth’s history.”
Modernmystic
2.1 / 5 (7) Oct 18, 2010
Because humans (even if they're responsible) aren't "natural".

We're the supernatural God beings who exist outside nature.

...or is it the Thetans that control us that are supernatural, I get so confused on that point. Just like I get Scientology and environmentalism confused a lot.
Skeptic_Heretic
4.3 / 5 (6) Oct 18, 2010
Spin it any way you like.
It's not spin. Read the entire article. Dyson is very much a fence sitter in the discussions of climate, he thinks carbon is a problem, and he thinks there are land use changes that must be made to combat potentially damaging changes. You're quotemining.
Just like I get Scientology and environmentalism confused a lot.
You get a lot of things confused, perhaps you should sit quietly and learn in that eventuality.
Shootist
1.3 / 5 (7) Oct 18, 2010
"The polar bears will be fine." Freeman Dyson.

Should be enough for anyone.

disclaimer: I am not advocating pumping unlimited amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. But that is an issue easily solved. 100 1GW fission plants will take care of the US. The rest of the world can do as they like. Clearly India and China are not going to stop burning coal.

Of course, to get to the levels of CO2 that were present in the carboniferous, you would have to burn ALL the coal and ALL the petroleum and all the Limestone now entombed in the ground.
Modernmystic
2.3 / 5 (6) Oct 18, 2010

Just like I get Scientology and environmentalism confused a lot.
You get a lot of things confused, perhaps you should sit quietly and learn in that eventuality.


You know you're right. There really isn't a fundamental difference between the two. Not at all as confused as I thought I was.
Shootist
2.3 / 5 (3) Oct 18, 2010
Oliver K. Manuel
Former NASA Principal
Investigator for Apollo


The use of the term Strange is confusing. I have to assume you are not claiming that the heavier isotope of Xenon noted in the single(?) meteorite mentioned consists of Strange Matter?
Skeptic_Heretic
4 / 5 (4) Oct 18, 2010
You know you're right. There really isn't a fundamental difference between the two. Not at all as confused as I thought I was.
You need serious psychiatric help.
Shootist
1 / 5 (3) Oct 18, 2010
More questions about the statistics (or lack of) in the Climate Change debate.

http://jerrypourn...ml#quant
omatumr
3 / 5 (2) Oct 18, 2010
Oliver K. Manuel
Former NASA Principal
Investigator for Apollo


The use of the term Strange is confusing. I have to assume you are not claiming that the heavier isotope of Xenon noted in the single(?) meteorite mentioned consists of Strange Matter?


Thanks for your comment.

Reply: The term "Strange" xenon was in the title of the 1975 paper published in Science, and it was used as part of the title of the debate that was published in Science:

O. K. Manuel, D. D. Sabu versus Roy S. Lewis, B. Srinivasan and Edward Anders "Strange xenon, extinct superheavy elements, and the solar neutrino puzzle" [Science 195 (14 Jan 1977) 208-210]. http://db.tt/EWrge86

I tried to reply to your comment on the video, but my reply wouldn't stay.

Send me an e-mail if you want a copy of the 1977 debate.

Oliver K. Manuel
GSwift7
1 / 5 (1) Oct 20, 2010
"so as Modoki becomes more frequent in the central tropical Pacific, the NPGO will also intensify"

Shouldn't that read "so IF Modoki becomes more frequent..."?

"You need serious psychiatric help."

I could probably use some too.

I'm not a statistician, but all the "if's" in the above article have me wondering about the significance of the findings. I guess it should result in better seasonal weather forcasting in the affected regions.
Skeptic_Heretic
1 / 5 (1) Oct 20, 2010
"You need serious psychiatric help."

I could probably use some too.
Nah, ModernMystic has some sort of unhealthy obsession with me. It's getting a bit frightening.