Super-typhoon global frequency could increase tenfold by 2100: Japanese researchers

May 4, 2010 The Yomiuri Shimbun

The frequency of violent typhoons whose winds exceed 194 kph (120.5 mph) could increase about tenfold by the end of this century due to the continuing trend of global warming, a team of Japanese government scientists has concluded.

The prediction was made by a research group at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.

The team, led by Kazuyoshi Ouchi, used a to simulate cloud movement and calculate atmospheric conditions over the entire Earth in 14-square-kilometer sectors.

Until now, the smallest such area for which researchers could perform calculations was 20 square kilometers.

The researchers projected the number of global would fall by 25 percent by the end of this century. But they also found that in the same period, the average annual number of strong typhoons -- now just one per June-to-October typhoon season -- would rise to 10.

The calculation took into account predicted future carbon dioxide levels.

They said it was possible a strong typhoon with winds of more than 216 kph (134.2 mph), similar in strength to the 1959 Isewan Typhoon (internationally known as Super Typhoon Vera), would strike every year.

Explore further: Typhoon Usagi Gathers Strength, Heads for Japan

0 shares

Related Stories

Super Typhoon Melor crossing Guam this weekend

October 2, 2009

Melor has become a Super Typhoon with sustained winds near 130 mph, and is crossing Guam and its islands this weekend. Warnings and watches are already up for the region.

Two NASA satellites capture monster Super Typhoon Melor

October 5, 2009

NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites flew over Super Typhoon Melor early today, October 5 and captured some impressive images of the storm's clouds on a track toward Japan. The Western Pacific Ocean has the edge on super typhoons, ...

Earth from Space: Typhoon Melor

October 9, 2009

(PhysOrg.com) -- This Envisat image captures Typhoon Melor spinning in the Pacific Ocean northeast of the Philippines on 6 October before slamming into the main Japanese island of Honshu on Thursday.

Super typhoon Lupit heading west in the Philippine Sea

October 19, 2009

Lupit has joined the ranks of super typhoons in the Western Pacific Ocean, and is currently packing maximum sustained winds near 132 mph, down from a previous peak near 149 mph, but still a Category Four strength typhoon.

NASA captures Typhoon Nida's clouds from 2 angles

November 30, 2009

NASA satellites capture amazing views of tropical cyclones, and the Aqua and CloudSat satellites captured a top-down look at temperatures in Typhoon Nida's clouds, and an image of what they look like from the side.

Recommended for you

Clues from ancient Maya reveal lasting impact on environment

September 3, 2015

Evidence from the tropical lowlands of Central America reveals how Maya activity more than 2,000 years ago not only contributed to the decline of their environment but continues to influence today's environmental conditions, ...

Climate ups odds of 'grey swan' superstorms

August 31, 2015

Climate change will boost the odds up to 14-fold for extremely rare, hard-to-predict tropical cyclones for parts of Australia, the United States and Dubai by 2100, researchers said Monday.

3 comments

Adjust slider to filter visible comments by rank

Display comments: newest first

TegiriNenashi
1 / 5 (3) May 04, 2010
Let's make the matter straight. Supercomputers (aka "mainframe"s) possess magical power only in Hollywood movies. As far as climate models go, they have extremely poor track record. Their research is worse than useless: the excessive heat produced during the simulations contributes to the alleged problem.
ormondotvos
3 / 5 (2) May 04, 2010
Now THAT is a maximally silly comment. Who is paying these commenters?
Azpod
1 / 5 (1) May 04, 2010
Yet another wild prediction from the alarmists. I expect this to be no more accurate than the wild predictions of the past that said the Earth would be doomed by 2010.

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.