People predict budgets better on annual basis

July 17, 2008

Everyone knows they should have a budget. But there's precious little research on how to go about it and what works best.

A new study in the Journal of Consumer Research found that people who made annual budgets were more accurate than those who made monthly ones. They also found that peoples' perception of their budget-making abilities affected the accuracy of the budgets.

During the study, researchers asked participants of various income levels to estimate their budgets for the next year and the next month. They also asked them how difficult budgeting was and told them a variety of stories about the challenges of budget preparation.

Authors Gülden Ülküman (University of Southern California), Manoj Thomas (Cornell University), and Vicki G. Morwitz (New York University) found that, contrary to popular advice, people were more accurate when constructing an annual rather than a monthly budget, even when they were logging their expenses weekly.

The researchers believe the annual budgets were more accurate because they were actually more difficult to construct, whereas people tended to be over-confident when preparing monthly budgets. The accuracy of the annual budgets improved when people were told the difficulty they experienced would result in more accurate budgets.

"Consumers' default tendency is to underestimate their budgets, for both next month and next year frames," write the authors. "However budgets for the next year are closer to recorded expenses because consumers feel less confident when estimating these budgets, and therefore, adjust them upward."

The authors propose that the best way to prepare a budget is to make an annual budget and divide by 12. They also recommend removing distractions when budgeting, since programmed distractions tended to reduce the accuracy of the research subjects' budgets.

Source: University of Chicago

Explore further: Income inequality makes the rich more Scrooge-like, study finds

Related Stories

Climate pledges keep 'door open' to warming under 2C: UN

October 30, 2015

Carbon-cutting pledges from 146 nations for a universal climate rescue pact leave the "door open" to capping global warming below the danger threshold, the United Nations said Friday, a month ahead of crunch talks in Paris.

Marketing expert exposes the darker side of Black Friday

November 17, 2015

Opting out of the US imported concept of Black Friday could be the most sensible business decision for retailers as they head into the pre-Christmas trading period, according to leading academic Dr Heiner Evanschitzky, Professor ...

Recommended for you

Four pre-Inca tombs found in Peru's Lima

November 27, 2015

Archaeologists in Peru have found four tombs that are more than 1,000 years old in a pyramid-shaped cemetery that now sits in the middle of a residential neighborhood in Lima, experts said.


Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.