Models look good when predicting climate change

April 2, 2008

The accuracy of computer models that predict climate change over the coming decades has been the subject of debate among politicians, environmentalists and even scientists. A new study by meteorologists at the University of Utah shows that current climate models are quite accurate and can be valuable tools for those seeking solutions on reversing global warming trends. Most of these models project a global warming trend that amounts to about 7 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 100 years.

The study titled "How Well do Coupled Models Simulate Today’s Climate?" is due to be published this Friday in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. In the study, co-authors Thomas Reichler and Junsu Kim from the Department of Meteorology at the University of Utah investigate how well climate models actually do their job in simulating climate. To this end, they compare the output of the models against observations for present climate.

The authors apply this method to about 50 different national and international models that were developed over the past two decades at major climate research centers in China, Russia, Australia, Canada, France, Korea, Great Britain, Germany, and the United States. Of course, also included is the very latest model generation that was used for the very recent (2007) report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

“Coupled models are becoming increasingly reliable tools for understanding climate and climate change, and the best models are now capable of simulating present-day climate with accuracy approaching conventional atmospheric observations,” said Reichler. “We can now place a much higher level of confidence in model-based projections of climate change than in the past.”

The many hours of studying models and comparing them with actual climate changes fulfills the increasing wish to know how much one can trust climate models and their predictions. Given the significance of climate change research in public policy, the study’s results also provide important response to critics of global warming. Earlier this year, working group one of the IPCC released its fourth global warming report. The University of Utah study results directly relate to this highly publicized report by showing that the models used for the IPCC paper have reached an unprecedented level of realism.

Another important aspect of the research is that climate models built in the U.S. are now some of the best models worldwide. Increased efforts in the U.S. over the past few years to build better climate models have paid off, and according to the authors' measure of reliability, one of the U.S. models is now one of the leading climate models worldwide.

Although model-based projections of future climate are now more credible than ever before, the authors note they have no way to say exactly how reliable those projections are. There are simply too many unknowns involved in the future evolution of climate, such as how much humans will curb their future greenhouse gas emissions.

To view the full study on climate models, please visit: www.inscc.utah.edu/~reichler/publications/papers/Reichler_07_BAMS_CMIP.pdf

Source: University of Utah

Explore further: Brazil builds climate tower in pristine Amazon jungle

Related Stories

DNA sequencing used to identify thousands of fish eggs

August 26, 2015

Using DNA sequencing, researchers have accurately painted a clear picture of fish spawning activities in a marine protected area (MPA) and have created a baseline for continuing studies on the effects of climate variability ...

Power lines restrict sage grouse movement in Washington

August 25, 2015

Transmission lines that funnel power from hydroelectric dams and wind turbines across Eastern Washington affect greater sage grouse habitat by isolating fragile populations and limiting movement, a new study finds.

Taking small steps for vulnerable migrants

August 25, 2015

Our earliest human ancestors migrated for reasons of survival: food, shelter and more hospitable climates. Fast forward to the 21st century, human migration has evolved into a complex equation of push and pull factors spanning ...

Recommended for you

What would a tsunami in the Mediterranean look like?

August 27, 2015

A team of European researchers have developed a model to simulate the impact of tsunamis generated by earthquakes and applied it to the Eastern Mediterranean. The results show how tsunami waves could hit and inundate coastal ...

Intensity of desert storms may affect ocean phytoplankton

August 27, 2015

Each spring, powerful dust storms in the deserts of Mongolia and northern China send thick clouds of particles into the atmosphere. Eastward winds sweep these particles as far as the Pacific, where dust ultimately settles ...

2 comments

Adjust slider to filter visible comments by rank

Display comments: newest first

Ninderthana
3 / 5 (4) Apr 03, 2008
Another propoganda piece from the global warming alarmist camp.

Remember, you must only report the news that bolsters your own world view. This is what passes for science journalism in the 21 st century.

All contrary voices must be quashed and ridiculed because they might cause the weak in faith to waiver from the holy consensus.
samweiss
3 / 5 (2) Apr 04, 2008
Perhaps Ninderthana would like to write a comment to BAMS :
http://www.ametso...dex.html
on the article when it is published Friday?

Ninderthana: with which part of the paper (which you have yet to read) in BAMS do you disagree?

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.