Expert: AI computers by 2020

February 17, 2008

A U.S. computer expert predicts computers will have the same intellectual capacity as humans by 2020.

Ray Kurzweil was one of 18 people chosen by the American Association for the Advancement of Science to speak on future technological challenges, The Independent reported. He said that in the future artificial intelligence will advance far beyond human intelligence.

"Three-dimensional, molecular computing will provide the hardware for human-level 'strong artificial intelligence' by the 2020s," he said. "The more important software insights will be gained in part from the reverse engineering of the human brain, a process well under way. Already, two dozen regions of the human brain have been modeled and simulated."

Kurzweil's predictions are based on the assumption that the "law of accelerating returns" will continue in the development of artificial intelligence. Computer chip power has doubled every two years for the past half-century as a function of the accelerating return principal.

Copyright 2008 by United Press International

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4 comments

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zevkirsh
1 / 5 (2) Feb 17, 2008
stupid
nilbud
4.5 / 5 (2) Feb 17, 2008
A computer which could have the same intellectual capacity as Ray Kurzweil, no problem. He's a humourless one trick pony and all the quack smart drugs and longevity pills he's been eating have mashed his personality flat. His asperger fondness for numbers combined with his gullibility lead to amusing but erroneous conclusions. Mathboys dividing by 0 again.
Nemo
1 / 5 (1) Feb 18, 2008
Considering that the average human probably has the equivalent of a Grade 10 education, believes in ghosts and gods, may or may not be able to locate his or her country on a map, probably does not know what a logarithm is - let alone spell it, I'd say it's just a matter of time. 2020 might be early. 2050 I wouldn't have any issue with. Do those 3 decades really make any difference in the long run?
Pitcrew
not rated yet Aug 05, 2009
Hey nilbud, I can't help but notice that you weren't invited to speak at that conference. An oversite on their part? I think not. And AI is coming and it really matters not whether it's 2020 or 2050 in the long run. We will build a smarter us, it's just a matter of time. I read Ray's latest book starting the day it hit the bookshelf, and predictions he made in 2005 are already coming to pass, just as he said they would, and I believe that all his predictions will happen, and probably faster that he predicted because the law of accelerating returns are probably more robust than even he thinks. And no, nemo, 3 decades don't make a whit of difference one way or the other.

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