Hike in U.S. kidney disease rates expected

November 5, 2007

Researchers predict sharp increases in the U.S. incidence and prevalence of end-stage renal disease by 2020.

"The expected number of patients with ESRD in 2020 is almost 785,000, which is an increase of over 60 percent compared to 2005," said Dr. David Gilbertson of the U.S. Renal Data System and the Minneapolis Medical Research Foundation.

Using data available through 2005, the Gilbertson-led study predicts the U.S. incidence, or the rate of new cases, of ESRD will be about 135,000 in 2015, or about 3,000 fewer cases than previously estimated. The predicted prevalence, or total number of cases, of ESRD in 2015 is estimated at 680,000 -- about 33,000 fewer than the previous estimate.

Nevertheless, based on a combination of trends -- such as increases in the rate of diabetes, the main cause of kidney disease -- researchers project continued hikes in the number of U.S. citizens suffering ESRD. By 2020, they said the number of all cases of ESRD is expected to increase to 785,000.

The findings were presented in San Francisco during the weekend at the annual meeting of the Society of Nephrology.

Copyright 2007 by United Press International

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