Seasonal Forecast Calls For Mild Winter In West And Cold In Northeast

Nov 24, 2005

Atmospheric and Environmental Research released its winter forecast Tuesday indicating that much of the United States will experience a warmer than normal winter.

Dr. Judah Cohen, Director of Seasonal Forecasting at AER, reported that, "...the western two-thirds of the country will experience above normal temperatures this winter, while the Northeast and Eastern Great Lakes will experience below normal temperatures."

Dr. Cohen, an expert in climatology, has been studying the effects of Eurasian snow cover since the mid-1990's. His research has demonstrated that the amount of snow cover over the land mass of Eurasia in the fall, has a major influence on winter temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.

The greater the extent of snow cover in Eurasia, the colder the winter season is likely to be in the Northern Hemisphere. This fall Eurasian snow cover is normal and not heavily relied on as a predictor.

Instead Dr. Cohen incorporates other atmospheric variables into his model and based on the current state of the atmosphere, temperatures in most of the US are expected to be, on average, warmer than normal while the Northeast will be colder than normal.

While it isn't forecasted to be as cold as the winter of 2002-2003, that winter AER accurately predicated below normal temperatures in the northeast, this winter temperatures will average below normal in that region of the country.

Dr. Cohen's proven technique has been tested and refined over the last decade and continues to outperform other forecasts derived from a less comprehensive set of initial inputs. While consumers are hoping for warmer than normal winter conditions in the Northeast, there could be an increase in energy consumption based on Dr. Cohen's forecast.

Copyright 2005 by Space Daily, Distributed United Press International

Explore further: A solar eclipse sheds light on physics

Related Stories

El Nino will be 'substantial' warn Australian scientists

May 12, 2015

Australian scientists Tuesday forecast a "substantial" El Nino weather phenomenon for 2015, potentially spelling deadly and costly climate extremes, after officially declaring its onset in the tropical Pacific.

Boom or bust in a jelly bloom market

Apr 02, 2015

The earth's climate is changing and extreme weather events are on the rise. Hurricanes are wreaking havoc with more ferocity, summers are getting warmer and winters colder. But what about our oceans? They, too, are warming. ...

Recommended for you

Image: Europa's Jupiter-facing hemisphere

6 hours ago

This 12-frame mosaic provides the highest resolution view ever obtained of the side of Jupiter's moon Europa that faces the giant planet. It was obtained on Nov. 25, 1999 by the camera onboard the Galileo ...

A bubbly cosmic celebration

6 hours ago

In the brightest region of the nebula RCW 34, gas is heated and expands through the surrounding cooler gas. Once the heated hydrogen reaches the borders of the gas cloud, it bursts outwards into the vacuum ...

Image: XMM-Newton self-portraits with planet Earth

6 hours ago

This series of images was taken 15 years ago, a couple of months after the launch of ESA's XMM-Newton space observatory. These unique views, showing parts of the spacecraft main body and solar wings, feature ...

User comments : 0

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.