New weather model predicts Rita

September 23, 2005

An advanced research weather model run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., is watching Hurricane Rita.

Meteorologists believe the research model will provide scientists with an idea of how well forecast models of the future might predict hurricane track, intensity, rain and wind features.

Using a high-resolution grid of data points about 2.5 miles apart, the model projects the location of fine-scale rain bands and eyewall structures 48 hours in advance.

It's those storm features that determine where the greatest damage from a hurricane might occur, says NCAR weather expert Chris Davis. Current operational forecast models use a coarser resolution and must approximate the cloud processes affecting intensity and precipitation.

Known as ARW, the computer model is a joint effort by university and government scientists.

"ARW intensity predictions are very encouraging," said Davis. "Five years ago, accurate intensity predictions weren't even possible."

The model predicted in detail the collapse of Hurricane Katrina's eyewall at landfall and the shift of precipitation to the north side of the storm.

Researchers are testing how computer simulations of a hurricane's most destructive features might improve damage model projections, leading to better warnings.

Copyright 2005 by United Press International

Explore further: Hulking hurricanes: Seeking greater accuracy in predicting storm strength

Related Stories

Drones help monitor health of giant sequoias

December 8, 2016

Todd Dawson's field equipment always includes ropes and ascenders, which he and his team use to climb hundreds of feet into the canopies of the world's largest trees, California's redwoods.

GOES-R heads to orbit, will improve weather forecasting

December 6, 2016

GOES-R, the first of NOAA's highly advanced geostationary weather satellites, lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida, at 6:42 p.m. EST today. The satellite will boost the nation's weather observation network and NOAA's prediction ...

NASA to launch fleet of hurricane-tracking SmallSats

November 11, 2016

NASA is set to launch its first Earth science small satellite constellation, which will help improve hurricane intensity, track and storm surge forecasts, on Dec. 12 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida.

Recommended for you

0 comments

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.