Global warming to boost Scots farmers

August 15, 2005

Climate change could be good news for Scottish farmers, according to ESRC funded research at the University of Stirling. Rising temperatures and increased CO2 levels could mean increased yields and a boost to local economies, according to Professor Nick Hanley, who led the project.

The research findings are based on a series of interlinked models, which analysed the effects of projected changes in Scotland’s weather on land use, regional economies and biodiversity. The possible effects of reform to the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) were also taken into account.

‘We were quite surprised to find that global warming is not necessarily a bad thing,’ says Nick Hanley. ‘Rising temperatures will permit farmers to grow more productive, faster developing crops and increase the intensity of livestock farming. At the same time, the extra C02 in the atmosphere will reduce the need for artificial fertilizers and this will offset any negative economic effects of climate change.’

Despite the predicted benefits of climate change, the prosperity of Scottish farmers will depend more on the extent to which the CAP is reformed, Nick Hanley warns. ‘Yields may go up, but prices will depend on changes in the marketplace rather than the weather.’

The research also found significant regional variations in the effects of climate change. The knock-on effects of increased farm income would be felt most strongly in the lowland south-west region of Scotland, and least in the hill farming areas of the North West. The only area which might experience poorer yields was the low-lying, low rainfall coastal south east, where irrigation might be needed in the long term, the report says.

The study found little evidence of changes to biodiversity as a result of shifting patterns of land use and management. ‘The indirect effects of climate change seem to be small, but there will also be direct effects which could not be predicted from our data,’ says Nick Hanley.

Source: Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)

Explore further: Link between climate change and armed conflict is exaggerated – new study

Related Stories

The climatic toll of volcanic eruptions

October 18, 2016

Volcanic eruptions over the last 1,000 years have exacted a heavy influence on global climate, according to a new study led by researchers at the University at Albany. The impact is felt most dramatically near the equator, ...

How quantum effects could improve artificial intelligence

October 17, 2016

(—Over the past few decades, quantum effects have greatly improved many areas of information science, including computing, cryptography, and secure communication. More recently, research has suggested that quantum ...

Recommended for you

NASA missions harvest a passel of 'pumpkin' stars

October 27, 2016

Astronomers using observations from NASA's Kepler and Swift missions have discovered a batch of rapidly spinning stars that produce X-rays at more than 100 times the peak levels ever seen from the sun. The stars, which spin ...

Experts uncover hidden layers of Jesus' tomb site

October 27, 2016

In the innermost chamber of the site said to be the tomb of Jesus, a restoration team has peeled away a marble layer for the first time in centuries in an effort to reach what it believes is the original rock surface where ...


Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.